Prospective 2009 Kentucky Derby Entries

Prospective Kentucky Derby Entries
By Profitus Maximus

Sired by Unbridled Song out of a Collect Call mare, Old Fashioned was purchased by Fox Hill Farms for $800,000 at the 2007 September Keeneland yearling sale.

Old Fashioned is one of the early favorites for the 2009 Kentucky Derby and was the top individual betting choice at the close of wagering in the Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW), closing at 7-1.

He is trained by Larry Jones, who raced Hard Spun and the ill-fated filly Eight Belles and, both of whom finished runner up in the 2007 and 2008 Kentucky Derbys, respectively. Top class jockey Ramon Dominguez has ridden him in his last two races and is expected to retain the mount.

His latest win in the $250,000 Southwest S. (G3) at Oaklawn Park on February 16, 2009 has kept him undefeated with 4 wins.

I Want Revenge is sired by Grade I stakes winner Stephen Got Even. He is trained by Jeff Mullins and is currently being piloted by jockey Joe Talamo.

He had run respectably in the Cash Call Futurity(G1), running second, and in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, running third, but his dazzling display in the Gotham Stakes on March 7, 2009 catapulted him to the top of the 2009 Kentucky Derby contenders list.

Will she make it as one of the Kentucky Derby entries? Trainer Bobby Frankel is leaving open that possibility, and the champion 2-year-old filly's 3-year-old debut in the Las Virgenes Stakes on February 7, 2009 was a winning one which certainly got her started down the Derby path on the right foot. She showed a nice kick through the lane to easily outclass her opponents.

Both the Las Virgenes and the Robert B. Lewis were run on the same day, so a comparison of the winning times of the respective winners, Stardom Bound and Pioneerof the Nile might prove useful. A one mile race at Santa Anita race is generally run about 6.8 seconds slower than is a mile and one sixteenth race.

The winning times were as follows:

Las Virgenes(Race 6): 136.43

Robert B. Lewis(Race 8): 141.90

Assuming that the track did not change significantly in the one hour interval between these two races, you would expect that Stardom Bound would have run about 143 and 1/5 seconds at a mile and one sixteenth, which is about seven lengths slower than Pioneerof the Nile did in winning the Robert B. Lewis.

Therefore, if these two meet up in the Santa Anita Derby, as much as your heart may want to root for the filly, who seems to be emerging as a fan favorite, the cautious bettor should consider this comparison of their times.

NOTE (Feb 12, 2009): I have done a little bit of research and discovered that Pioneer of the Nile got a 94 Beyer Speed Figure for his winning effort and Stardom Bound got only an 84, which is about a 7 length difference, validating my afore-mentioned calculated difference.

Pioneerof the Nile first came to the notice of handicappers in the Breeders Cup Juvenile back on October 25, 2008 with his fifth place finish. Despite encountering some traffic on the first turn, he finished only 2 ¾-lengths behind the winner Midshipman.

Pioneerof the Nile stamped himself as one of the most promising potential Kentucky Derby entries with his win in the Robert B. Lewis(formerly the Santa Catalina). Heretofore, his speed figures had been a little light and he needed to show that he could overcome some adversity and he did on the far turn being forced to wait in behind traffic until the three-sixteenths pole when he was able to finally move. Once he got in the clear he unleashed a strong kick to win by a half-length over Papa Clem.

He came home his final 1/16 of a mile of the Robert B. Lewis in about 5.80 seconds which is very solid. He defeated I Want Revenge by 1 ½ lengths despite the troubled trip, as compared to just a nose victory over I Want Revenge in their previous meeting in the Cash Call Futurity(G1), indicating that he might have improved since their last meeting.

His sire was 2003 Kentucky Derby favorite Empire Maker. He has a big long stride and may actually not prefer the synthetic tracks. His sire generally excelled over tracks that had more give to them and yielded slower times such as Gulfstream Park and Belmont Park. Moreover, Empire Maker improved as his three-year-old season progressed. If Pioneerof the Nile takes after the pattern of his sire, then the best may be yet to come.

More Prospective Kentucky Derby Entries to Come!

In scoping out the 3-year-old prospects who have the potential to take this years Kentucky Derby, the Pamplemousse might be soundly eliminated on the basis of name alone. Is the winner of the most celebrated race in the sport really going to be named the Pamplemousse?

Generally, the Derby winner has a either a noble, heroic sounding name such as Sea Hero, Silver Charm, Monarchos, Barbaro, War Emblem, or Big Brown, or at least a clever sounding name with a nice ring to it such as Street Sense or Funny Cide.

The Pamplemousse? No Derby winner is going to be named the Grapefruit (french translation).

But then I think back to Lil E. Tee and realize that there are always exceptions to the rule.

The Pamplemousse turned in a pretty nice effort in the San Rafael stakes, defeating the odds on favorite, Square Eddie.

I have determined the speed figure for The Pamplemousse’s January 17, 2009 San Rafael win and compared it against fellow southern californian Pioneer of the Nile’s previous couple races (not the Robert B. Lewis, haven’t done the speed figure for that day yet). My assessment is that The Pamplemousse ran about 3 lengths stronger than were Pioneerof the Nile’s previous two efforts, the Cash Call Futurity win and the Breeders Cup Juvenile fifth place effort.

The fact that the Grapefruit beat Square Eddie by about 1½-lengths in the San Rafael and that Square Eddie finished 1½-lengths in front of Pioneerof the Nile in the Breeders Cup Juvenile suggests that, assuming Square Eddie ran a similar race on Breeders Cup day (though he did encounter a bit of traffic that day) as he did in the San Rafael, The Pamplemousse's San Rafael is about three lengths better than Pioneerof the Nile's Breeders Cup Juvenile race, which is the exact same result that my GHR Speed Figures tell me.