Blue Grass Stakes - Editorial

What Happens at Keeneland STAYS at Keeneland - April 29, 2008

More so than any other prep race, the Blue Grass Stakes run at Keeneland has in recent years been one of the most unreliable indicators of a horses subsequent performance in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. There have been many examples of a horse running a spectacular race at Keeneland and yet when transitioning to the Churchill Downs surface, they often run a race whose outcome so little resembles their prior performance as to leave handicappers perplexed at what could’ve gone wrong.

Conversely, horses that have run seemingly mediocre or even bad races in the Blue Grass often come back to run a vastly improved race in the Derby. Horses do improve and decline in form all the time, but that alone is insufficient to fully account for the degree to which performances in the Blue Grass and Derby have varied in recent years.

In October 2006 Keeneland debuted a Polytrack surface on its main track, replacing the traditional dirt track of prior years. And though the Polytrack surface over which the last two Blue Grass Stakes have been run is much different from the prior dirt surface, the trend continued last year. Whether something similar is observed this year remains to be seen.

A look at the Blue Grass Stakes in recent years reveals the following:

· 2001: Millenium Wind won by 6 lengths over Invisible Ink who ran 4th that day beaten 8 ½ lengths. Invisible went on to run second in the Kentucky Derby at 55-1. Millenium Wind ran 11th, over 15 lengths behind Invisible Ink.

· 2002: Harlan’s Holiday won the Blue Grass, and finished a decent 7th in the Derby, beaten 12 ¼ lengths by War Emblem who was probably the best horse in the race at that time. Although he was soundly beaten in the Derby, he was the one of the few recent Blue Grass winners whose subsequent Derby performance was a reasonable reflection of his Blue Grass performance, finishing just 2 lengths behind that year’s Santa Anita Derby winner Came Home and 4 ½ behind Wood Memorial runner up Medaglia d’Oro.

· 2003: Peace Rules beat Brancusi by 3 ½ lengths, who was the runner up. Although Peace Rules went on to run a respectable third in the Derby, probably a reasonable reflection of his Blue Grass win, Brancusi finished last, beaten over 20 lengths.

· 2004: The Cliff’s Edge outran Limehouse by 6 ½ lengths but Limehouse turned the tables next out, running 4th behind Smarty Jones, and outfinishing him by 4 ½ lengths, a net change of 11 lengths. Lion Heart ran second to The Cliff’s Edge in that years Blue Grass, losing to him by a ½ a length and then ran second in the Derby, outfinishing The Cliff’s Edge by 10.

· 2005: Bandini won the Blue Grass by 6 lengths, earning a 103 Beyer Speed Figure. In that race Closing Argument ran 3rd, beaten 9 full lengths. In the Kentucky Derby, Bandini finished 19th of 20, beaten over 30 lengths behind Closing Argument who got the runner up spot.

· 2006: Sinister Minister dominated the Blue Grass by 12 ¾ lengths, finishing 21 1/4 lengths ahead of Bluegrass Cat. In the Kentucky Derby, Bluegrass Cat finished a good second to the ill fated Barbaro, 24 ¼ lengths ahead of Sinister Minister, a net difference of 45 ½ lengths.

· 2007: This was the first year that the Blue Grass was run over Polytrack, and yet the trend continued. Street Sense finished second, losing by a nose to Domincan, and finishing 1 ½ lengths ahead of Great Hunter. Street Sense then of course went on to win the Kentucky Derby. Dominican finished 11th, 17 lengths behind and Great Hunter finished 13th,, 20 lengths behind. In fact, this latter example was history repeating itself, as Great Hunter had outfinished Street Sense in the Lanes End Futurity at Keeneland the prior fall (also run over the same Polytrack) by 1 ¾ lengths, but was trounced by Street Sense in their next meeting by 12 ¼ lengths in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (also run at Churchill Downs).

In handicapping the Derby, many are trying to make sense of Pyro’s poor showing in this years Blue Grass and to assess the strength of Monba’s win. However, before excusing Pyro’s poor performance or underestimating Monba’s win, the bettor is advised to proceed with caution by noting that the performance differential from the Keeneland Polytrack to the dirt at Churchill Downs may not be as dramatic as it was when Keeneland was still a traditional dirt track. Two examples of Polytrack to Churchill dirt were given, but they both involved Street Sense. Moreover, he may have had a particular affinity for the Churchill Downs strip.

Therefore, don’t be too quick to dismiss Monba (despite the cute headline). He has shown he is quite capable over the Churchill Down’s dirt in winning an Allowance race back in November. Pyro may have simply not liked the Polytrack which I suspect was the case, but don’t overestimate his ability because you are willing to “put a line through it”.