Kentucky Derby News
Blue Grass Stakes

Pyro's Blue Grass Stakes loss not a shocker - April 13, 2008

Whether Pyro was going to take to the polytrack at Keeneland well enough to win the Blue Grass Stakes was questionable, but one thing was certain - he should not have been even money. First, his last two Beyer numbers were 95 and 90, in the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star respectively, which averages to a 92 or 93, hardly Derby material. Pyro is likely better than the low to mid 90 numbers he has been running this year, evidenced by the fact that the pace of his last two races at the Fairgrounds were on the slow side, which often results in slower than average times. If you throw out his Breeders Cup effort which was run in the slop, his last three route Beyers on a fast track have been: 95, 90, 100, an average of 95.

I don’t know about you but a 95 Beyer type horse who has never run on a synthetic surface against 11 other 3 year olds at even money doesn’t exactly entice. In fact, if we assume that he has not improved much from his 2-year-old season to his 3-year-old season, which his speed figures would seem to suggest, I would almost say he is a throw out for the Kentucky Derby. The last time a 95 Beyer type horse made horse racing news in the Kentucky Derby was Giacomo in 2005 who hovered around the 95 Beyer range in his three races prior to the Derby, and it was considered a shocker when he won. Even if we suppose he might’ve run a few lengths faster in the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star had the paces been on the quick side, that still leaves him reaching for the 100 Beyer range.

These new synthetic surfaces are much like a muddy or sloppy surface – some take to them really well, others seem to have no affinity for them whatsoever. The surprising thing is not that Pyro lost but that he could have been beaten by 9 horses and lost by 11 lengths. However, I am nevertheless inclined to agree with Jerry Bailey who noted after the race that the performance was just too bad to be believed and that you might want to draw a line through it.

Before you jump off the Pyro bandwagon, a word of caution. In 2006, Sinister Minister finished 21 1/4 lengths ahead of Bluegrass Cat in the Blue Grass Stakes. In the next race, the Kentucky Derby, Bluegrass Cat finished second to the ill fated Barbaro, 24 ¼ lengths ahead of Sinister Minister, a net difference of 45 ½ lengths. Be especially careful if the track on Kentucky Derby day turns up sloppy, as you can count on such a surface being as different from the synthetic surface over which the Blue Grass Stakes was run, as night is from day. He beat 9 other horses by at least 12 lengths in the Breeders Cup Juvenile over a sloppy track.

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