Breeders Cup Pick Six Payoff
Far Less than Typical

Breeders Cup Pick Six Payoff Far Less than Typical
By Profitus Maximus

Although there is no hard evidence to suggest that any betting shenanigans found their way into this years Breeders Cup Pick Six the way they did in the 2002 Breeders Cup, the payoff compared to what would be expected certainly raises a few suspicions. A ticket that had all six winners of the pick six sequence that included: Goldikova, Midshipman, Donativum, Midnight Lute, Conduit, and Raven’s Pass paid $55,920.80 on a $2 ticket.

However, if a bettor had “parlayed” a $2 bet across these six races, that is, placed $2 to win on each of these winning horses, re-invested the winnings after each individual race, and re-invested those winnings in each subsequent race, and so on until the final leg of the sequence which was the Breeders Cup Classic, the bettor would find himself with a total of $63,904.78, or $7,983.90 more than if he had played the winning six combinations on a pick six ticket.

The argument is illustrated in the table below:

Total bankroll from parlay: $63,904.79
Total winnings from pick six: $55,920.80

Thus the pick six paid only 87.5% of the parlay.

I did a study a few years back to determine how much above parlay the pick six generally paid on the southern california circuit, and the payoff was on average, about 75% more than the parlay. If this same factor is applied to today's parlay, the expected pick six winnings would be: $63,904.79 x 175% = $111,833.38, a full $55,912.58 above what a winning pick six ticket actually paid.

It is probably just as well that most of the lucky 60 or so people who cashed winning tickets are oblivious to just how poorly the Breeders Cup pick six paid compared to the norm, but it is just as well they don't know, they are probably having a blast right now with their winnings. Ignorance is bliss.