Monterey Jazz Heads Field of 9 in the G1 Cigar Mile

Grade 1 Cigar Mile
race can be seen on hrtv - post 3:48 EST

The Daily Racing Form has made Kodiak Kowboy the 7/2 ML favorite off his G3 Sport Page win but I don't like him in this spot. The track was obviously playing slow on October 25 at Belmont where he won that race, but is a 124 and 4 really going to win this race? He came home his 7th Furlong in 13 and 3/5, not exactly what you want to see. He did run well in the G1 Vosburgh but that was over a sloppy track and if the conditions are sloppy on Sunday, then maybe...but otherwise if the actual odds mirror the DRF Morning Line, then there is value to be had.

I like Monterey Jazz. There is alot of speed signed on here, including Storm Play and Wanderin Boy, but Monterey Jazz has shown the ability to go really fast and as he did in the Strub Stakes and still win well. Russell Baze couldn't control him in the Santa Anita Handicap but in the Texas Mile, David Flores got him to set more moderate fractions, and he has stalked before. The layoff is an issue but he is in good hands with trainer Craig Dollase, he will have him ready to go. If he is anywhere near the 6-1 ML price (though I have a feeling he will be closer to 3-1), I will take it.

A staff writer for the Daily Racing Form seems to think Arson Squad will go favorited based on his Meadowlands Cup Victory. I don't think he should, and actually don't think he will despite the A+ connections of Richard Dutrow and Garret Gomez. He is 5-1 on the Morning Line, but he beat Anak Nakal by only 2 lengths who I have never held in high regard. Furthermore, I know how good Arson Squad is out here in California as compared to Monterey Jazz and if this race were at Hollywood Park, and an Arson Squad would be needed to put out the fire Monterey Jazz would light under him.

I did a piece earlie this year on how Arson Squad should be taken off the synthetic surfaces and switched to the main dirt, and my theory was confirmed with a win his last out, but surface alone can't make you win. I've always felt he was very talented, but I think he might have trouble getting up for the win. Second place? Definitely a shot.

I like Bribon and Visionaire. Bribon earned a 118 Beyer Speed Figure at Belmont a few races back, and in his last ran a very solid 105 Beyer despite being squeezed back at the start. He even widened on the field in those two efforts.

Visionaire might be one to really light up the toteboard at 12-1 ML. He was no match for Tale of Ekati in the Jerome at Belmont in October, but that was on the sloppy track, and not all sloppy tracks are created equal. He won the Gotham over a sloppy track here at Aqueduct, so I am willing to overlook the last and draw a line through it. I also like what he did in the Kings Bishop. Kodiak Kowboy on the other hand, was no match for him in that race.

Wanderin Boy is going to get respect but I think he is more of a sloppy track specialist. If the track comes up sloppy, then he is definitely a contender, otherwise on a fast dirt track, I will stand against. I think Tale of Ekati is outmatched here.