Del Mar Race Track - July 27 2008 R8Del Mar Race Track: July 27, 2008, Race 8 Street Boss – The 9/5 ML favorite I think is vulnerable. I wasn’t very impressed with his last effort despite the win in the G1 Triple Bend. GiftHorseRacing Speed Figures disagrees with the 99 assigned to him, and believes it is overestimated by as many as a few lengths. The 122 and 2 he ran last time did come over a very slow track, but even after adjusting for the speed of the track, he still doesn’t show a number as good as some others here. He’s talented and its possible, and maybe didn’t run his most fabulous race last time, but at 9/5, I will stand against. Barbecue Eddie – I adjust his 7F time in his last race to be several lengths faster than Street Bosses winning 7F time in the Triple Bend. He is a contender and at 3-1, is a square price. Jungle Prince – Nice comeback effort last time in the Robert Kernlan but in his comeback race on 6/13, he was beaten by several in this race that would be real longshots. It is true that he was coming off over a year layoff, so a bet on him is a bet on rounding into a peak form. No question he has the raw talent, and his sire is Sir Cat who is an “A+” synthetic surface sire, so not impossible, but I haven’t seen him actually run the type of race that is needed to win yet, so pass. In Summation – The other major contender here. When on his game, he and Barbecue Eddie seem to be about equivalent in ability. Silver Stetson Man – The 97 Beyer he received last time out is about right. He was beaten by Street Boss two back. Probably shouldn’t be 20-1 on the ML, but still a longshot. Winsome Charm – Is 20-1ML with a 104 Beyer Speed Figure in his last. Based on GiftHorseRacing Speed Figure adjustments, the 104 may be closer to a 100, which isn’t quite enough to get past In Summation and Barbecue Eddie. Still, at 20-1 could easily round out the trifecta. Sailors Sunset – No thanks. Spot the Diplomat – Among the longshots, I like this one. His last performance did come in a 40K claiming race, but based on our adjustments, he ran a better 6F time than did Silver Stetson Man and Winsome Charm in their last races, though only slightly better. Johnny Eves – Won the G1 Malibu, but always felt that performance was a bit overrated. 6F is definitely better for him than the 6 1/2F to 8 1/2F distances he has been running lately, but don’t think he can beat the top ones here. Win Exacta Box
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