Del Mar Race Track - July 31 2008 R3

Del Mar
July 31, 2008, Race 3

Carson’s Copper – He is my top selection here. Although he lost his last up at Golden Gate, he ran a respectable second and the speed figure which he ran on 5/29/08 should be good enough to win this. I estimate his Beyer Speed Figure to be a few points higher, possibly an 84, and that combined with the fact that he steadied in that race gives him the credentials to take this. If the horse that ran 5/29/08 shows up, he should take this.

Put Back the Zip – An X factor here since he has been running primarily on the regular dirt at Churchill lately. He has tried the polytrack at Turfway and Keeneland, but didn’t fare particularly well. John Sadler is always dangerous, and he has shown the Beyers to approach the top one, but not on synthetic track and I have found it a mistake to bet assuming that a horse will make the transition when I haven’t seen him take to it yet.

Warren’s Flying High – Think he is just not fast enough.

Tribal Mischief – More likely than Warren’s Flying High who he outran last time by 1 ¼ lengths, but hasn’t shown the numbers to contend with Carson’s Copper.

Superfecta is the ML favorite at 2-1, but I prefer Carson’s Copper (second choice at 7/2 ML). According to GiftHorseRacing Speed Figures, the two 80 Beyer’s he received for his two 6F cushion track efforts might be a bit overstated. Definitely second but will stand against on the win.

ByJohn and Whatever Whenever are outclassed.

The horse most likely to finish in the exacta is probably Carson's Copper.

Win
Carson’s Copper (2)

EXA
Carson’s Copper / Superfecta, Tribal Mischief (1)