Del Mar Race Track - August 20, 2008 R6

Del Mar Race Track - August 20th, 2008, Race 6

This appears to be a three horse race on paper between Bella Dancer, Ms. Toomsuba, and She Floats. Everyone else appears outclassed.

According to GiftHorseRacing speed figures, a comparison of Bella Dancer ridden by Garret Gomez and Ms. Toomsuba to be ridden by Rafael Bejarano reveals that after adjusting the 6 1/2F time for their respective last races, the Gomez horse is about 2 lengths faster than Bejarano's horse, although the Daily Racing Form shows that Ms. Toomsuba was assigned an 84 Beyer, whereas Bella Dancer received an 81. We think those numbers should be reversed. Given that Ms. Toomsuba is 5/2 ML, and Bella Dancer is 4-1 ML, if the actual odds mirror the ML roughly, then we believe Bella Dancer is the better play.

Both trainers of the afore-mentioned horses leave much to be desired (Steve Knapp, and Lloyd Wicker), but that means both horses have the same disadvantage.

The ML favorite She Floats (9/5) time adjusted for GHR Speed Figures is about 3/4 of a length faster than the Gomez horse, and She Floats does have John Sadler as the trainer, but on the other hand gets Tyler Baze. Tyler may be having a good meet, but he is no match for Gomez and Bejarano(Bejarano is at an astonishing 64% in the money).

All in all, the connections of the three main contenders seem to be roughly equivalent.

Exacta Box
She Floats, Bella Dancer (1)