Del Mar Race Track - July 16 2008 R1

Del Mar Race Track
Sunday, July 16, 2008 – Race 1

Both Pawnee and Norway House both seem to hover around the 75 Beyer range for routing, especially Norway house who is a consistent 75 Beyer type. There may be a couple here I believe are a couple lengths better than that. I'll pass on these two.

Glimmering Pete is interesting. He had some trouble at the 1/8 pole last time, got shuffled back and didn't have the position he would've liked but I am not sure he would have beaten Norway House by more than a length with the ideal trip. He is currently 3-1 (with 65 MTP), and he can do it, but at 3-1, I will play against.

I like Courtly Jazz. I like the 6/11 effort, and I think the 78 Beyer is legitimate when compared against GiftHorseRacing Speedfigures. Of course it is a concern that he was beaten by Norway House (twice) and Pawnee, but he has at least shown the potential to run around an 80 figure before. He has solid trainer Carava in his corner. He was beaten by Coronado's Pride last time but that was at the sprint distance of 7F, and he was running evenly, at least he wasn't losing ground.

Plan for Fun is the favorite right now, and will likely go off as such. I do think he is the most likely winner, but not tempting at short odds for the win, especially since on 6/11, Courtly Jazz got within 3/4 of a length of him, and that one is close to 12-1 right now. Contender but the price may not be worth it.

Win to Win has competitive beyers but he has never run on the synthetic. The trainer has a good percentage. If he takes to the polytrack, he can do it, but an X factor.

Dennybuck ran a pretty good race on 10/28/07 at Oak Tree, but after adjusting his speed figure, I don't think the 72 he received is quite strong enough to win.

Refinery has a good jockey, a so so trainer, and has shown ability in the past on polytrack (5/11 sprinting). This one is possible at 7-1, the question is whether the same horse that showed up on 5/11 will show up. Mixed signals.

Coronado's Pride is my other longshot here. On 6/26, he was leading at the top of the stretch and then drifted way to the center, costing him a couple lengths of ground. He received a 75 Beyer for that effort which might be closer to a 79 if you adjust for ground lost. The trainer Knapp gives me less confidence than just about any other trainer, but the Knapp factor is built into the price at 14-1. At that price, I'll take a shot.

Win
Courtly Jazz (1)
Coronado's Pride (1)

EXA
Plan for Fun/Courtly Jazz (1)