Del Mar Race Track - July 24 2008 R4

Del Mar Race Track
July 24, 2008, Race 4
Clm 25000 N2L

Western Comment - Beaten twice by Stomp Dance, once by 7 ¼ lengths, the other time by 2 lengths. Pass.

High Investment – He ran on 6/15 at Hollywood in a 6F race, and ran the equivalent of about a second slower than did Big Red Tate who also ran that day in a 6 ½ F race. Assuming the track was playing similar from race 7 to race 9 that day, you have to discard him.

Headed for Home – If any horse can challenge the favorite Big Red Tate it might be this horse. It is doubtful that he can beat the ML favorite, but if anyone might it is likely him, and if Big Red Tate doesn’t show up for some reason, he is my second pick.

Go Flags Bro – The Beyer numbers I think are pretty accurate when compared against GiftHorseRacing Speed Figures, and they aren’t quite enough to beat some of the others here.

Pack Your Bags – He will need close to an 80 Beyer speed figure to be competitive here. He did receive an 81 for the 4/18 effort but GiftHorseRacing Speed Figures has determined the Beyer should be closer to a 74. The one positive he has is that in that race, he ran his final 1/16th in 5.81 seconds, which was among the few fastest come home times for 5 1/2F at the Santa Anita meet, and in that race Bejarano had the mount and is reunited with him again today. Looks interesting, but I just don’t see the speed figures to win here. Definitely can get second.

Stomp Dance - Beat High Investment by 1 length, but it was already determined that Big Red Tate is likely a second faster than High Investment based on their respective performances on 6/15 at Hollywood Park.

Jet Strip Billy, Syndicator, and Greatest haven’t shown they are fast enough to compete. Syndicator can get second but it’s doubtful he can turn the tables on Big Red Tate.

Big Red Tate – As Todd Schrupp of TVG Network would say, picking this horse is being Captain Obvious, but there is no sense trying to beat the best horse. At 4/5 I will pass, but if he is close to his 5/2 ML, he is worth a play. His GiftHorseRacing Speed Figure was calculated and it was determined that the 85 Beyer Speed Figure he received last time on 6/15 at Hollywood Park is closer to an 87, which only helps his case. Additionally, the 82 Beyer he received for his 5/17 effort may be closer to an 87 based on our adjustments. The pick.

The final three outside horses are longshots and deservedly so.

Win
Big Red Tate (1)

EXA
Big Red Tate / Syndicator, Headed for Home (1)