Del Mar Race Track - July 24 2008 R7

Del Mar
July 24, 2008, Race 7OC 100k/C

Barber and El Manuel – See the analysis for the King Glorious stakes (6/13/08) for details on their trip in the Los Angeles Handicap, and the Track Record results for the King Glorious. It is noted that somehow Solis let Barber get shuffled back after establishing decent position at the rail but then came running well late. In that race, Barber lost by the same ½ length margin despite having a bad trip, which actually gives him the edge. He was beaten by a ½ length by El Manuel in the Los Angeles Handicap although based on trip handicapping, I would put him even with that one.

Barber was my value play in the King Glorious (as compared to El Manuel). The only problem with Barber is that this time his odds will be closer to El Manuel’s, and furthermore, trainer Art Sherman had an ice cold Hollywood meet and doesn’t appear to be off to any better a start here. On the other hand El Manuel’s trainer Mike Puype was just as cold at Hollywood. The tie breaker will be the jockey, I will take Solis on Barber over Michael Baze on El Manuel.

Arson Squad – I have no idea why trainer Bruce Headly insists on running this horse on synthetic surfaces. This is a very talented horse, perhaps the best one in the field over a regular dirt surface, having won both the Swaps and the Strub Stakes on conventional dirt. Arson Squad’s first experience over a non dirt surface was in the La Jolla on turf, which turned out to be a disaster. That should’ve told him right there that a radical change in surface can result in a radical change in performance with this one. Is it is very likely he has been forced to run over a surface these past five starts for which he has no natural affinity. I think he does best with at least 7 furlongs to work with anyway. 7 furlongs on the dirt? Absolutely. 6 1/2F on the Polytrack? Stand against.

Peace Chant – Has done nothing in his last three to suggest that he can be competitive with the top contenders here. He is talented but in a little too deep here. The 105 Beyer he received on 5/12/07 was surprisingly adjusted to 95 once a comparison was made with GiftHorseRacing Speed Figures. Another one that might be better on regular dirt. Pass.

Northern Soldier – Beaten fair and square in the King Glorious stakes on 6/13 by El Manuel and Barber. No thanks.

Doppio – This horse seems to hover in the low to mid 90 Beyer range at best. He does have the A+ connections in Bejarano and Gaines, and I do think he can get second. Exotics material but doubtful for the win.

Vega’s Lord - This one has shown ability over the turf routing, so he is a total X factor. Trainer Drysdale is solid, but I want to see one race over synthetic going short before I back him. Not enough data so must stand against.

Whilly – Who knows how he will run on polytrack, but based on his recent form on turf, he doesn’t appear to be the same horse that once finished second in the Dubai Duty Free and G1 Clement Hirsch. Pass.

Xela – The only bright spot is Garret Gomez, but even that isn’t enough to make up the 10 lengths he will need to improve.

Win
Barber (1)

Exacta Box
Barber, El Manuel (1)