February28 Santa Anita

February28 Santa Anita

I will also be looking at races 4,6, and 7 (in progress now), so check back periodically.

Race 4 : Green Secret He has shown the figures to win this but that was on dirt, but if his Fairplex and Turf Paradise form translate fairly well, he will offer great value at 5-1 or better. Its 30 MTP as I post this, and Green Secret is 11-1 opening odds. Not much to separate Return of the King and Valiant Effort, so I will take the horse that may suprise. Fight on is interesting also. Check out Green Secret's trainers win percentage: 38% for 2008!!

Race 9 (The Sham): Mr. Hot Stuff. My speed figures tell me that he is only a couple lengths behind The Pamplemousse, who I also think is the one to beat, but you will get better value on Mr. Hot Stuff, since he has not yet won a stakes, whereas The Pamplemousse has already won the G3 San Rafael. However, Mr. Hot Stuff improved so much in his last, and he came flying home so impressively last out that I think he can take a couple steps forward and cause the upset.

The Pamplemousse might get away with a soft pace however, so there is that concern, but Take the Points may pressure him a bit and make the pace at least solid. Take the Points is interesting and is an unknown because he has never tried the synthetic but he does have alot of talent. Its possible. I think if you want a horse that will likely come in the exacta, Mr. Hot Stuff is your best bet in terms of value and running style.