Florida Derby 2009

March 7, 2009 - Florida Derby Day

Race 9 Pick - The Swale Stakes: Win: Brave Victory I like this horse alot. Although the Gomez horse This One's for Phil looks tough, you will get better odds on Brave Victory. He is moving forward, and despite having a little trouble at the start last time, showed he could close strongly at 6 furlongs. Also the horses he finished ahead of last time were solid horses. Would do an exacta box with This Ones for Phil and Brave Victory as well.

Race 9 Pick - The Florida Derby: Win: Theregoesjojo Although he was defeated last time out, that was at 8 furlongs and he gets an extra furlong to run down Quality Road this time, and you will get a better price. The likely favorite Dunkirk might be a bit overbet, and he must improve 4-5 lengths in order to compete with the Theregoesjojo and Quality Road. He could do it, but I will take a wait and see approach here on Dunkirk. I don't want to bet on future expectation. According to GHR Speed Figures, Dunkirk's last effort is not good enough to win here, he MUST take that leap forward. Again, he does have the breeding and the potential, the question is, will he take that step forward today. Tough call, but I will stick with the value here.