Free Horse Racing Tips

Free Horse Racing Tips: Never Bet the 1/5 Shot to Win

The 2010 edition of the San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita Park provides an excellent case study in betting, as opposed to handicapping. I have found that whenever there is a heavy favorite such as was the case with Conveyance in this race, who closed at 1/5 odds (.30-1 to be precise), it is unwise to bet that horse in a straight win bet. Consider that for every dollar bet on him to win, which he in fact did, paid 30 cents profit.

Consider the exacta matrix shown below as it appeared at post time. It can be seen that a straight exacta of Conveyance over each of the other four contenders paid on a $2 exacta bet, $14, $6, $10, and $10. That is, Conveyance over Cardiff Giant (3-1 exacta) will pay $14 on a $2 exacta bet, or 6-1 odds; Conveyance over Domonation (3-2 exacta) will pay $6 on a $2 exacta, or 2-1 odds; and Conveyance over Lucky Rave and Via Verde each will pay $10 on a $2 exacta.

I happened to have an opinion that Cardiff Giant was a slightly stronger horse than Domonation, but the betting public obviously felt otherwise, having let the former off at 13-1 odds, while backing the latter more strongly at 5-1 odds. I did not care for Lucky Rave or Via Verde much either.

Conveyance won and Cardiff Giant finished second

Consider that a $2 win bet on Conveyance would net you 60 cents profit, but that the same $2 invested in the form of an exacta of Conveyance over Cardiff Giant would net you $12, or 20 times as much profit!

Even if I had been of the opinion that a Conveyance over Domonation exacta was more likely, $4 profit on my $2 bet is much nicer than a mere 60 cents