Proceed with Caution on Friesan Fire

March 20, 2009
By Profitus Maximus

Friesan Fire - A Perspective:

If you are the casual fan with no intention of wagering money on the Kentucky Derby with the hope of gaining a larger sum of money, then feel free to root your heart out for Freisan Fire in the 2009 Kentucky Derby.

But if this horse particularly impressed you last Saturday’s Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds Race Track in relation to the other prospective Kentucky Derby entries, and you are hoping to make some money off of him, you may wish to consider a few of the following points in order to avoid getting burned by Friesan Fire.

Experienced horseplayers know that progeny of A.P. Indy, of which he is one, often have an affinity for sloppy or muddy surfaces, and although there are certainly exceptions, Friesan Fire seems to fit the pattern often seen in his offspring.

The Louisiana Derby was run over a track condition rated officially as sloppy (sealed). Often over such surfaces large margins separating the horses are seen, which usually indicates that they love the off going relative to other horses. It shows that when a factor such as rain is introduced, the effect observed is that some horses love it, some horses really dislike it.

In contrast, huge length gaps in the first three or four finishers are rarely observed on the faster synthetic surfaces at the Southern California tracks; the finishers generally cross the finish line much closer to each other, indicating that the difference between the relative liking for the synthetic surface among the horses is not as marked as on a sloppy or muddy track.

Did Friesan Fire benefit from the sloppy track at Fair Grounds Race Track? Consider the following:

1. He won the Louisiana Derby by 7 ¼ lengths

2. He beat Giant Oak by 9 ¼ lengths in that race, though in their prior meeting in the Risen Star (G3), run over a fast track, Giant Oak got within 5 ½ lengths of him

3. He beat Flying Pegasus by almost 14 lengths, but in the Risen Star, Flying Pegasus finished only 2 lengths behind Friesan Fire

4. He beat Uno Mas by 15 lengths, but that one got within 3 ¾ lengths in the Risen Star

5. He beat Patena by 15 lengths, but in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), which was also run over a fast track, the margin of victory was only 1 ½ lengths

These facts suggest one of several possibilities:

1. He not only moved up on the sloppy surface, but that he really moved up on the surface, but did NOT improve, and rather the track condition affinity was the true source of his relative advantage, OR

2. He DID improve as a horse in a major way and actually doesn’t especially prefer a sloppy track after all, OR

3. He both improved AND he has an affinity for a sloppy surface

I am inclined to think the third scenario is the most likely, but that it was predominately a surface affinity that aided his spectacular victory, but that is not to say he did not improve a couple lengths as well, which is entirely possible.

I just find it hard to believe that a horse in one start improves 10 lengths. A horse can improve a couple or even three or four lengths from race to race, especially as they are young horses, but 10 is a little far-fetched.

If the Churchill Downs surface does happen to come up muddy or sloppy for the Kentucky Derby, his apparent affinity for the off going is a fact that must certainly not be neglected, but if it is just a regular fast track, then make sure the odds you are getting on Friesan Fire adjust for this surface condition advantage being taken away from him.