Hollywood Park - April 27, 2008 Race 2Bthoughtful River Glow is 8-1 on the ML, but will probably be bet more heavily at post time. This is her third start off a year long layoff, and it is worth noting that she improved based not only in terms of her improved speed figure, but due to the number of lengths she improved on Witchy Meeting from her race on 3/3 to her subsequent race on 3/31. On 3/3 she finished ½ length behind Witchy Meeting (after being in a bit tight at the ½ mile pole), but on 3/31 she beat her by a margin of 7 ¼ lengths under a hand ride. Trainer Carla Gaines is on fire right now and though River Glow has never tried stakes company, she wouldn’t point her here if she thought she couldn’t win. In addition, River Glow has faced stakes winner Silver Z (ML 5/2) and defeated her by a length in her first career start. My feeling is that River Glow is the more talented runner, and she should outrun Silver Z. The only issue is that she does draw the rail that will either get a perfect rail trip, or she may have to overcome traffic depending on where the jockey positions her. River Glow is the top selection. Although Silver Z has a capable trainer in Brian Koriner, I wouldn’t rank him at the very top in terms of getting a horse ready off of a year long layoff they way I would a Bobby Frankel, John Sadler, or Carla Gaines. Silver Z does have a nice bullet drill 4/20, and is 2/2 at Hollywood, but I would use her underneath in the exotics. Mistical Plan did win the G2 Fairground Oaks last year, but her 2 efforts over the synthetic surfaces were not particularly impressive. Her best race over the synthetic track was in the Ashland-G1 at Keenland last April. After watching the race, I didn’t see any excuse, she seem to be going well in the stretch but just got beat. Dawn after Dawn who finished third in the Ashland outfinished her by 4 lengths that day, and won a N2X Allowance race at 6 1/2F at Hollywood on 11/30/07 by a nose earning an 84 Beyer Speed Figure, which I believe is accurate based on a comparison of Gifthorseracing’s own speed figures. And an 84 isn’t quite enough to compete with River Glow, Tiz Elemental, or even Silver Z. This combined with the 1-year layoff is enough for me to take a stand against her. If this race were on regular dirt, I would give Mistical Plan more consideration but the best races to evaluate performance are other synthetic races and she has tried it twice. And Doug O’Neill is a solid trainer but not a master of getting them ready off this long of a layoff. I’ll pass for the win. Spenditallbaby hasn’t shown the kind of performances needed to be competitive for the win. She did win the Fleet Treet last year at Del Mar earning an 86 Beyer. She defeated Swiss Diva that day by a neck, a horse who the aforementioned Dawn after Dawn defeated by a nose in the above mentioned 11/30/07 Hollywood Allowance race. Barry Abrams has been showing better numbers lately so I might use underneath in the exotics. Tiz Elemental is a logical contender- can’t dismiss three straight synthetic track wins, the last of which was a G3, but if she is close to her 7/5 ML odds, she is probably only worth playing on top of an exacta. Must use in the exotics. Chosen Royalty was in tight a bit in the stretch in between horses at one point and ran a solid race after a 1-year layoff. She has a nice long stride and she should improve but I prefer others. Win: River Glow
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