Hollywood Park - April 30, 2008 Race 7HOL - April 30, 2008, R7 Coast Guard appears to be the classiest horse in this field, having finished a solid third in the Santa Anita Derby. The horses that appear to have a chance to upset Coast Guard are Tangled Tango, Madeo, and Power Blitz. First, a word about the rest of the field. High Stakes Silver has already been outrun 6 ½ lengths by Trevor’s Clever (on 4/3/08) who is also running today. He ran in the San Felipe but was outfinished 6 ½ lengths by Bob Black Jack, a horse who Coast Guard managed to get within 1 length of in the Santa Anita Derby. No thank you. Meetingwithdestiny was beaten 12 ¼ in the Santa Anita Derby, beaten almost 11 lengths by Coast Guard with no apparent excuse. He was 62-1 in that race and ran as expected. He did run a nice race in breaking his maiden, nosing out Screen to Screen, but Screen to Screen was beaten 4 lengths by a horse named Medjool on 2/18/08 routing over the Santa Anita surface, a horse who Coast Guard beat by 2 ½ lengths routing here at Santa Anita. Furthermore, Screen to Screen finished within a ½ length of Matty’s G Force on 2/18 routing over the cushion track, but Power Blitz really ran down Matty’s G Force last time (who I like in this race – see below). Pass Trevor’s Clever did finish second beaten 4 lengths by Lexington Stakes winner Behindatthebar on 4/3/08 at this same level after having bobbled at the start and swinging wide into the lane. Coast Guard appears to be stronger, although I would use him in the runner up spot. Chop House George got within 7 ¾ of Bob Black Jack in the San Felipe but Coast Guard got within 1 of him in the Santa Anita Derby. Pass. Winsome Charm has some talent but appears to be better suited for sprinting. On 2/22, despite setting a very slow pace he managed to come home his final 1/16 of a mile in an average time of 6.5 seconds. He is 6-1 on the ML, but I am pretty confident about this one not getting the win. The contenders Madeo outran Dakota Phone in his last race by almost 7 lengths, and in his prior race actually finished a length and a half behind him, which may signify that he is improving. Watching this 3/1 race in which he faced Tangled Tango (also in today’s race), he went very wide into the stretch, probably losing a couple lengths in the process and was off a little slow, and yet he still managed to get within under 4 lengths of Tangled Tango. Had he has a better trip it might’ve just been a couple. If he is in fact improving he would seem to be one of the ones that could upset Coast Guard. I watched Tangled Tango’s last race and I got the sense that he can stretch out to today’s 1 1/16 distance effectively. Note that he and Coast Guard both ran on 4/5, just two races apart. Horses that run the time that Tangled Tango ran, 108 and 4 generally can run 9F races in times similar to what Coast Guard ran in the Santa Anita Derby. At 6-1 ML, he is worth a stab. Power Blitz is my longshot to upset the field. This son of Fusaichi Pegasus (FuPeg) ran a very interesting race last time. The jockey Rosario seemed to be riding him very hard to stay in the race as they were nearing the far turn, and even into the stretch. In the final 1/8, he clearly accelerated and showed a dramatic turn of foot to run down Matty’s G Force. This is the sort of intangible that a Beyer Speed Figure or final time can’t tell you. In only his second career start, he was still trying to figure it out. I don’t know if he can run down Coast Guard but he is trained by the very capable Neil Drysdale and if he doesn’t get the win, he may offer great value underneath in the exotics. Win Power Blitz Exactas Coast Guard / Power Blitz, Tangled Tango, Madeo
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