Hollywood Park - May 4, 2008 Race 7

Hollywood Park
May 4, 2008 - Race 7

I watched the 3/22/08 race between Pictural and Roadside Rest. Have the sense that Roadside Rest will benefit from the extra 1/16 whereas Pictural looks like 6 ½ is a bit more suitable. Roadside Rest is the top pick.

The head view down the backstretch shows that Pictural broke outward a length, whereas Roadside Rest got a nice clean trip. Down the backside nearing the 3/8 pole, some horse bumped into Roadside Rest, not serious but maybe ½ a length. The head-on view in the homestretch shows Pictural cutting the corner smoothly into the stretch but Roadside rest had to go wide, which probably cost him the same amount of ground that Pictural lost at the start. Neither accounts for much lengths lost but they cancel each other out.

Roadside Rest has a much longer stride than Pictural, and even though the pace was a little faster than average, I think Roadside Rest will run down Pictural in the stretch today. If Pictural manages to get away with a pace a couple lengths slower than average, then I would give him a chance, which may happen.

I am starting to question that 92 Beyer Pictural received on 2/24. Yvetts Pride ran in a MdClmg 25K and MdClmg 40K subsequently and in both cases finished off the board.

Drewismyson is 15-1 ML and may be a bit better than the 68 Beyer on 3/21/08 suggests. He went very wide into the stretch and furthermore, Beyers at 5 ½ F are often misrepresented because there aren’t as many of these races run. I liked the way he won 3/21/08, but I looked at what No Grande who finished second that day did, and although that one won his next Mdclmg race, he narrowly beat a horse named Sir Carson whose two previous beyers were 58 and 58. Might get a piece at a price. I would use underneath in trifectas.

Devoted Magic – I feel the same way about him, could finish underneath in the exotics, but the horses he beat have been beaten by horses that horses in todays race have beaten. As an example, Otisisgold finished 2 ¾ behind Devoted Magic, but on 4/23 in R6, Otisisgold ran a 7F time of 124.97. Tracker Jack who is in todays race finished ¾ behind a horse named Stormin Jack last time out, but Stormin Jack also ran on 4/23 two races later in R8, but ran about 123.12, which is over 10 lengths difference. For this reason I’ll stand against Devoted Magic.

Stand Tall – One of the contenders based on Speed Figures and trained by a Canani which is a plus. His synthetic numbers sprinting are consistently high 70s. Should not that he is very consistent in the exotics – he has finished in the money on synthetic in 5 of the last 6 attempts. Use in exotics especially with Canani.

Hunter Creek – I don’t like Christopher Paasch off a layoff. I am looking at a horse he beat 3 races back, The Royals Court. That one finished close to him on 1/14 but in his next three races at the Mdclmg level (Md32, Md32, Md20), he received Beyers of 49, 52, 64, beaten 5 ½ lengths in the two Md32 races. Two negatives for me, I’ll stand against.

Tracker Jack. Would definitely use in the exotics, however in his last race he set a pace about 2 –3 lengths slower than the average for a 7F race at Santa Anita, and yet the field was coming at him near the end. The horse that finished in third last time (1 length behind Tracker Jack) in his previous race finished 4th in a starter allowance race at 1 1/16th, beaten 3 ¼ lengths. He beat Oldtophatandtails two races back and that one came back to win at the same level, Md25 earning a 78 Beyer. Not the top choice but I think he has a shot.

Saxophone – I would place a small win wager on this one at 15-1 ML The effort on 3/16 at Santa Anita was a very strong effort and enough to win this. The last two were disastrous but many horses simply don’t like the downhill turf. I can’t think of two more different surfaces than cushion track and the Santa Anita downhill turf course. Two races back he clipped heels and pulled up, so that explains the one two back. Take a chance.

Note: Pay special attention to the first race at Hollywood today. This is a mirror race to race 7, and Army Officer is entered here. Roadside Rest beat him by over a length last time out. So if Army Officer does well, that makes Roadside Rest and Pictural look better.

Win
Roadside Rest (2)
Saxophone (1)

Exacta
Roadside Rest, Pictural BOX (1)
Tracker Jack, Stand Tall / Roadside Rest (1)