Hollywood Park - May 7, 2008 Race 5OC 80k/C Should note that in the 1/4/08 race in which Scat Thief and Tropic Storm faced each other, Scat Thief had some trouble in the stretch – he responded to Victor Espinosa’s stick by veering sharply out to the center of the track and then came right back almost as sharply costing him perhaps 2 lengths whereas Tropic Storm had a clean frontrunning trip and cut the corner cleanly into the stretch vs. Scat Thief who went a length wide. They broke from adjacent posts that day, so you might say that Tropic Storm’s 3 ½ length margin over Scat Thief that day ought really to be at least 2 lengths closer, maybe 3. Given that that was a 6 1/2F race, and today’s race is a 7 1/2F race, Scat Thief may be able to turn the tables at a higher price. Scat Thief did look like he might appreciate more ground and was gaining inches on Tropic Storm at the end. Given that Scat Thief is 6-1ML and Tropic Storm 9/5 you may want to take a chance on Scat Thief. That was awhile back on 1/4/08, but they both seem to have maintained their form and both have capable trainers who ought to have them ready to go. In addition, in this same 1/4/08 race, the pace for a 6 1/2F at Santa Anita was on the slow side, running their first quarter in 22 and 1. There were three other 6 1/2F races that day, and the opening quarters were all run from between 21 and 2 to 21 and 3. There doesn’t appear to be a great deal of speed today, although Declan’s Moon has shown speed before, just not lately, so Tropic Storm could steal it. Declan’s Moon might be one of those horses that will be overlooked. I think a lot of people have given up on him – he has disappointed in all but one race as a favorite these past 10 races or so. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he took this one. His last effort is not good enough, but this is the second off of a long layoff, and he has a nice bullet drill from the gate on 4/30. He has always struck me as the type that might need a race before rounding into form, rather than the type that fires fresh. He is in capable hands with Ellis, and at 8-1ML is a decent play. Tiz Afire like Declan’s Moon is one that has shown the ability to compete with these in the past, but his last two should have shown just a little more. It’s true that he may have been outclassed but not that badly. He was beaten 8-10 lengths by Celtic Dreamin the last two routes over synthetic, and now comes off a 5 month layoff. His efforts back in July 2007 at Hollywood can do it, but I prefer others. All Man looks pretty good here. He is second choice by the oddsmakers behind Tropic Storm but I’ll make him my top selection. The horse he lost to on 1/14/08 at 7F at Santa Anita by 2 lengths, Hewitts, finished a neck behind Soul City Slew on 3/10/08 (who finished a close third) and in that same race, 4 ¾ ahead of Declan’s Moon. In addition, All Man outfinished a horse named I’m all out by about 3 ¼ lengths and Cayambe by about 5 lengths. This pair of I’m All Out and Cayambe finished very close to Scat Thief on 2/25/08. In fact Cayambe beat Scat Thief by a ½ length and I’m All Out finished a nose behind Scat Thief. It is one of the most useful handicapping points when you can identify a pair of horses that have run against two horses that are competing against each other in a race you are handicapping. Tropic Storm has to be given some respect especially since he finished only 1 ¼ behind Street Boss, and that one finished just a neck behind Doppio who I think would probably win this race. Hewitts got within 1 ¼ of Doppio on 3/10 and All Man got within 2 lengths of Hewitts on 1/14. If this were 6F or 6 1/2F, I would definitely use Tropic Storm more heavily. He can do it, but I don’t like the 7 1/2F distance at 9/5ML. Cesc has the best overall connections in the field with Carla Gaines and Rafael Bejarano, who should always be respected, but his Racing Post Ratings just aren’t quite enough to convince me. These should be higher than Beyers, and he is just barely hitting the 95 level in Racing Post Ratings, which would just barely make him competitive her. Not impossible, but despite the connections, I’ll have to stand against. No Dream actually looks stronger than the Carla Gaines runner based on Racing Post numbers, even though the latter runner has raced on polytrack whereas No Dream has only raced on turf, but turf runners are often able to translate their form well to the synthetic surfaces, and the connections are very good. Still, I want to see him run at least on synthetic before I put my money on. Could surprise but I’ll take my chances. Marvel Wood was beaten 6 ½ lengths by Tropic Storm last out, with no apparent excuse. Pass. Win Exacta Return from Hollywood Park Free Horse Racing Picks to Home
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