Hollywood Park - May 9, 2008 Race 7

Alw51000N1X
Post Time: 9:59PM

Instant Action – I do believe that this is the best distance for him. However, he has really only had one outstanding sprinting effort on 12/21/07 for which he earned a 98 Beyer and ran 108.18, and on a day which, according to my own speed figures, shows the track was playing fair. He finished ½ length behind Storm Machine on 2/15/08, but that one came back in a N2X Allowance race and finished last. He seems to be a high 80s beyer type, and I think there are better in this race.

RJs Way has obviously had some physical problems and is coming into this after almost a year layoff and a year layoff before that. Although he did show some ability on 4/12/06 on the old Santa Anita dirt surface and is trained by a capable hand in John Sheriffs, he did lose badly over the Hollywood cushion track last year. It is possible that whatever has been ailing him for the past year occurred during that race. However, for me to place money on him, I would have to bet that something happened to him during that race (and not after), and that Sheriffs will have him in top condition after a year. Not impossible, but there are too many negatives. Stand against.

Major Pleasure – Trained by Mike Puype, the best jockey in the field Bejarano gets the mount. The horse has had two very nice consecutive bullet drills, so the horse should be ready to go. This horse beat Albertus Maximus who is a very good horse. He clearly has some raw talent and is lightly raced and so is eligible to improve. Not the top choice, but a contender.

Exhale has a huge figure on the Santa Anita dirt but didn’t run so well the last time on the synthetic Santa Anita surface. He did break a bit slow and was in tight down the backstretch for a short while though never taking up or checking. Nevertheless, he is the 2-1ML favorite and I would like to have seen just a little more from him. The fact that his trainer John Sadler is one of the best is actually a negative because he is one of the few that can get horses ready off year long layoffs most of the time, and last out he just seemed to be outrun. I am going to stand against him at the price.

Street Lights came out of the same 4/14/08 race that Exhale exited, but seemed to have a cleaner trip than Exhale and was finished earlier than Exhale. He has a very good trainer in Gaines just as Exhale has Sadler, but the last two efforts on the synthetic weren’t enough to convince me he likes this sort of surface. May prosper better on the regular dirt. Prefer others.

Unusual Jail – This one is my top pick at 5-1ML. I can excuse the mediocre effort last out over the downhill turf. This horse has the best last effort over a synthetic surface of the field. I watched the 2/28/08 6 ½ F race, and he seemed to have a few runs in him. Down the backstretch, as they approached the Santa Anita screen, he picked it up a bit, then nearing the quarter pole, he was in behind the whole field, slowed it down, then swung out 5 wide, and then accelerated in the stretch accelerated. This is the sort of thing you want to see in a horse, the ability to make a second run, and he has it. He came home his final 1/16 of a mile in 6.00 seconds flat on a day when the track was not playing very fast. He ran his last 3/8ths of a mile in 36 seconds flat. Compare this with Exhale who on 4/14/08 ran his last 3/8ths of a mile in 36.70 seconds, but on 4/14/08 the track was playing on the fast side for sure, but on 2/28 it was definitely playing slower than on 4/14/08. If he doesn’t win, think he’ll probably get second.

Soldier – Numbers don’t approach anything near to what is needed. His sire Quiet American gets a very low synthetic performance rating in the 2008 book of Sire Stats.

Win
Unusual Jail (2)

Exacta
Unusual Jail, Major Pleasure BOX (1)