Hollywood Park Race Track - May 11, 2008 R8Hollywood Park – May 11 2008, Race 8 Railbird Stakes Sweet Hope – This certainly has some talent, and does in fact have a 5 length win over the polytrack in England. Her 97 Beyer last out wins this ordinarily – problem is that there is no guarantee that the performance will translate to synthetic. But her performance last out was strong enough that even if she takes to the synthetic even a little less well than over the dirt at Bay Meadows, she has a shot. Pesinoe – Had absolutely no excuse after being overtaken by Lethal Heat in the Santa Paula. Lovely Isle put her away at the top of the stretch in the Las Virgenes. No chance. Highland Torree – The curious thing about this horse is that he got within 2 ¼ of the Santa Paula winner, Lethal Heat, but managed to get within only 5 lengths of Homemade Brew and Magical Victory in a N1X Allowance race last time out. If he ran a very similar race, then that certainly makes Magical Victory and Homemade Brew look as good as Lethal Heat both by comparison and would seem to legitimize their 87 Beyer which is competitive with Lethal Heat’s 86 in the Santa Paula. Highland Torree didn’t seem to have any problems in her race against Homemade Brew and Magical Victory, she just appeared to be outrun. Pass. Lovely Isle I think is better than her last race suggests. She pressed a very past pace in the Santa Paula on 3/30 at Santa Anita. Synthetic surfaces may not be her favorite, but she is capable over them, as evidenced by her second place finish in the Las Virgenes on 2/9, finishing behind the talented Golden Doc A and 2 ¾ ahead of Tasha’s Miracle who is a G3 winner over the polytrack at Del Mar. Usually when a horse trained by Frankel doesn’t quite run their A race, they usually come back with an improved performance the next time. She has the highest Beyer in the field with a 101 over the Aqueduct inner dirt track. Her numbers have decreased dramatically over synthetic surfaces – she is an example of why I am being cautious on the rail horse, Sweet Hope despite her nice figure last out. One of the main reasons I like her a lot at 12-1 ML (though she will go off lower my instincts are correct) has to do with the way she ran against Peisinoe in the Las Virgenes and then in the Santa Paula. In the Santa Paula, Peisinoe actually outfinished her by ¾ of a length, but in the Las Virgenes they were dueling head and head as they approached the far turn and Lovely Isle put her away easily turning into the stretch. I have to think either she just didn’t run her best race last time, she was too close to a faster than normal pace, or some combination of both. In the Las Virgenes she was leading Golden Doc A at the 7F mark by almost 2 lengths as well. I think she will do better this time. Homemade Brew beat Sailor’s Sister on 4/25 at Hollywood in a N1X Allowance race by almost 2 lengths. On 2/18 at Santa Anita, Sailor’s Sister broke her maiden in 110.55, which was about 5 lengths (.77 sec) slower than Paul’s Hope who earned a 92 Beyer for that race. Lethal Heat is the 5/2 ML favorite, but if she is the one to beat, why is Highland Torree 20-1 on the ML? She only beat that one by 2 ¼ lengths. Her win last out in the Santa Paula was nice, and appeared to be just a classier horse than P.S.U. Grad and Highland Torree, but I think there is a chance the performance was not a strong as her 5/2 ML status suggests. As noted before, Highland Torree got a couple lengths closer to Lethal Heat than she did to Homemade Brew and Magical Victory. She can do it, but at the price, I think I might stand against. P.S.U. Grad – She is okay and has a good trainer in Craig Dollase, but she had much the same trip last time in the Santa Paula as Highland Torree who I am standing against. She was about a length behind Lethal Heat at the ¼ pole in that race, but 1 ¾ behind at the wire. Prefer Lethal Heat to this one. Has some talent but stand against. Homemade Brew and Magical Victory ran much the same race in their meeting on 4/25. Homemade Brew broke from the 8 post, Magical Victory from the 6, and both had fairly clean trips. I got the sense that Magical Victory might slightly prefer the extra furlong today a bit more than Homemade Brew, but its close. If I had to choose one I’ll let Victor Espinosa be the tie breaker and I’ll take Magical Victory. I was hoping Tasha’s Miracle would be a little higher on the ML than 7/2, and perhaps she will be at post time. The Beaumont at Keeneland last out was a tough field that featured G1 Santa Anita Oaks winner Ariege. I am looking two races back to the Las Virgenes though. I think she ran a much better race than the 87 Beyer figure suggests. While Lovely Isle whom I respect got a perfect trip breaking from the 2 post, Tasha’s Miracle broke from the 5 and for the first half of the race was pulling at the bit. She is a good example of when it is useful to watch the video replay. She was pulling for the first half of the backstretch wanting to go up closer, and she was on even terms with Golden Doc A at the 7F mark, and might’ve been a couple lengths closer to Lovely Isle had she been able to relax. Although she may fall victim to the same tendency this time, I think she has a shot. Million Dollar Run – She was run down in a Maiden Special Weight. No thank you. Note Late Scratches: Win Exacta
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