Hollywood Park Race Track - May 14, 2008 R1

Hollywood Park – May 14 2008, Race 1

Clm 40000
Post 1:20 PM

Nice Bet – Has some talent and was facing a tougher field in a classified Allowance race last time. The winner, Mast Track got a 88 Beyer in his previous race placing second in an Allowance race. It would have been nice to see this horse get at least within 10 lengths of Mast Track but couldn’t do so. I think a couple in this field could have performed better against Mast Track and that 4/20 Allowance field. X factor but pass.

Gallardo was in tight at the 1/8 pole last time out, but didn’t have that bad of a trip, and in fact saved ground the whole way. Turning into the stretch he was in behind horses and had to wait, then tried to squeeze through an opening and was a bit tight there as well, but not a nightmare trip by any means. Racecaller Trevor Denman noted down the backstretch that Gallardo was traveling very nicely and just needed somewhere to run. I am convinced that this race was not a representative race from him. He is capable of a few lengths better than what he showed.

On 5/9 in a 25K claiming race at 1 1/16 miles, Gold Trim finished ¾ ahead of Like New Money, and on 4/13, Gold Trim finished second almost 2 lengths ahead of Like New Money in the 32K claiming race in which Gallardo ran 4th.

This tells me that the 4/13 race is not really that strong, since the pair of Gold Trim and Like New Money finished pretty close together in each race.

Gold Trim got a 91 Beyer for the 4/13 race, but his prior beyers running at 1 1/16 were 79, 83, 85, 87, all of which were either wins or solid efforts by him. I think it is entirely possible that the 86 and 90 Beyer’s that Gallardo and Sensational Score received on 4/13 therefore might be overstated.

Seven Secrets has lost to Gallardo twice - once by a neck, the other time by 5 ½ lengths. Pass.

Gallardo’s 3/20 race in which he finished second, beaten ½ length I think was a very strong race. The final time of 140.92 was the fastest 1 1/16 time of the entire meet in fact. And the third place horse from that race, Dawn’s Early Sky, who finished 4 lengths behind Gallardo, and who is entered in today’s race, came back to finish a close second in a 40K claiming race next time out, which is today’s level.

On 4/13, should be noted that Sensational Score probably had a worse trip than Gallardo. He had to go wide onto the backstretch, and then perhaps 6 or 7 wide into the stretch, whereas Gallardo saved ground into both turns. As mentioned, he was in tight for a bit coming into the stretch, but if his effort should be adjusted a length, Sensational Score’s effort might be increased by 2 lengths. And Sensational Score did beat Gallardo by 2 lengths despite that.

The real question is whether the Gallardo of 4/13 or from 3/20 will show up. It is possible he is going off form a bit, but I have a 1 bad race rule, that is I can excuse one subpar effort, just not two. Gallardo has the outstanding jockey Bejarano, Sensational Score has the outstanding trainer Sadler. Gallardo has a good trainer, Sensational Score has a good jockey (Rosario). The tie breaker for me is the trip notes mentioned above + the nice bullet drill in 110 and 4 by Sensational Score. However, I think Tap it Light offers more value than either of these.

Tap it Light is the co-4th choice on the morning line at 4-1, but I am going to take a stab with him for the win. Two races back he beat Behind the Screen pretty handily, and Behind the Screen has finished close to the above-mentioned Gold Trim on two occasions. Looking at Gallardo and Sensational Score’s last race on 4/13 shows that Sensational Score beat Gold Trim by only ¾ of a length. I watched that race and Sensational Score and Gold Trim were about even at the 3/8ths pole, Sensational Score went about 6 wide, Gold Trim about 5 wide, and Sensational Score outfinished him but not by much. So by comparison, Tap it Light looks competitive.

I think Gallardo on his best day would be formidable, but I’ll take a chance on Tap it Light who I think is very close to Gallardo at his best, and based on his last, I’ll stand against the 5/2 ML favorite and take the 4-1 horse instead.

Win
Tap it Light (2)