Hollywood Park Race Track - May 14, 2008 R4

Hollywood Park – May 14 2008, Race 4

Scratches: Bettin An Sweatin

Clm 12500
Post 2:45PM

This race is going to require a Beyer in the high 70s to win. Peace Accord, Cactus Lightning, Bettin and Sweatin, Run Forest Run, and Casting Crowns have all shown that they can run in that range. The rest of the field has not demonstrated they are within 3 lengths of what is needed.

Among the rest of the field, Scott’s Poppy is worth a mention in that this horse has the best connections of the field, Bejarano and Mitchell, but that alone is not enough to sway me though he is 7/2 on the ML.

Looking at Eddie Munsta’s 6/28/07 race, based on my own Speed Figures, I believe the 85 he received that day is legitimate, perhaps even a point higher, which wins this. If you can overlook the 8/24 race based on the “one bad race” theory, and accept that his next effort at Fairplex came over a track that has really quirky results (and did finish 2nd of 10 on 9/10/07 at the 16K claming level, so it wasn’t a bad effort actually), then I think he has what it takes to win. Some may argue that his lone win came at the Md 25000 level, but he did run second in a 12500 claiming race at Fairplex, and Jeff Mullins wouldn’t point him here today if he thought he didn’t fit.

I watched the 4/20 race in which two of today’s main contenders, Peace Accord and Cactus Lightning competed against one another. Cactus Lightning had the better trip breaking from the rail and outfinished Peace Accord by a length. This time Peace Accord breaks from nearer inside and Cactus Light from the outside. I watched the race including the head on view down the backstretch and didn’t see that much of a difference. Cactus Light seemed to be a bit stronger, but when two favorites come out of the same race and run very similarly, and I like another horse at a higher price, I generally take a stand against the pair of favorites, which is what I will do today.

Run Forest Run lost to Familiar Stranger last out whom Cactus Lightning beat previously. Pass

Win
Eddie Munsta (2)