Hollywood Park Race Track - May 29, 2008 R4Post: 2:54PM Among the contenders and those within range of contending, Transvaal Scottish and Touch My Abs who are both 6-1 on the ML I would stand against. Transvaal Scottish looks like a low 60s Beyer type horse and there are others that are clearly better than that, and Touch My Abs last two sprinting over the synthetic have been weak performances. Back in February and March Touch My Abs he looked better but even on 3/1/08, he was beaten 2 ¼ by CR Caper, and against whom Ricky El Corredor has gotten within a neck and 1 ¼ of in two meetings. I’ll stand against these two. Dunlap is the X factor, being trained by the high percentage Jeff Mullins and has never run over the polytrack. The book of Sire Stats indicates his sire, Tale of the Cat, is an average to good synthetic sire. However, that alone is not enough to convince me. I would prefer to go with what I can get a handle on than guesswork. Possible, but prefer others. Earlfromoklahoma is 3-1 on the ML but the second and third place finishers in his last race, Tribal Justice and Seven Point One received speed figures of 77 and 78, respectively, in their last sprint races run over synthetic. Earlfromoklahoma was no match for these and I think there are a couple in here today which can run close to those numbers. Stand against. Academy Stage, Check This Topper, and Kindacatchy have never run fast enough to be competitive with some of these. That leaves Ricky El Corredor and Carson’s Copper, 6-1 and 5/2 ML. On 4/19, Ricky El Corredor was running on late in that 5 1/2F race, and a replay shows that he was bumped at the start and made and angled our very sharply 5 or 6 wide, causing him to lose at least a length on the field. He was gaining ground on horses that have shown they can run at least a 75 Beyer such as Bangyen Bartok, Uxmal, and CR Caper who have been competitive at the 40K claiming level which offers more than double the purse money than todays $15,000. I am absolutely convinced that the 59 Beyer he received in his 4/19 race is way understated. That combined with the fact that he hopped at the start in his last, chased a pace that was about 2 lengths slower than the par, and also didn’t change leads in the stretch makes me think he will provide the best betting value. Hopefully, Academy Stage, Carson’s Copper and Kindacatchy will provide a solid pace for him to close into. Alex Solis will have to time this one right. I do think Ricky El Corredor is the best bet to come in the top two spots. Carson’s Copper is good enough to win, and the 71 Beyer he received last year on 7/27 at Del Mar according to in house speed figure adjustments, ought to be closer to 77. He gets Bejarano and Peter Miller is adept at getting them ready off the layoff. Still he may need one, but I believe the race he ran last year as a 2 year old could be competitive here, and he is now a 3 year old. Contender. Win Place Exacta
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