Hollywood Park Race Track -June 15, 2008 R8

Hollywood Park Race TrackJune 15, 2008 - Race 8

Affirmed Handicap - G3

Exuma and Trevor's Clever both came out of the Alydar stakes finishing a length apart. Trevor's Clever clearly took a big step forward last time and may be on the improve. Exuma ran about as well as expected (see my 5/24 analysis - based on his proximity to Madeo in the Alydar, he ran about where I thought he would). This means a a mid to high 80s type beyer is probably what you will be getting with Exuma. Trevor's Clever has to continue on an upward trend to be competitive, but I would rather bet on past performance rather than guessing about the future. I think you either consider Trevor's Clever and Exuma both competitors or stand against both. I'll stand against both. But if you do like one of these, then I would recommend boxing with the other.

Bingham finsihed close behind Exuma and Trevor's Clever in the Alydar, and he does have A+ connections of Mullins and Bejarano, but didn't appear to have any real exuse last out.

EZ Dreamer has never tried synthetic but this one intrigues me. The book of Sire Stats indicates his sire, In Excess, is a good (not great, but better than average) synthetic sire. Furthermore he has demonstrated class finishing 3rd in the Will Rogers (G3) last time after a troubled trip. Horses that have run well on the grass often run well when transferring over to synthetic. I give him a shot.

Two Step Salsa is my top pick. He may be the ML favorite at 2-1 but I think he deserves it. His last race earned him the top beyer in the field of 99 and is trained by top trainer Julio Canani. Although he did break from the rail and get a clean groundsaving trip, he seemed to be finishing the race with alot left. The horses to his immediate right seem to be devoid of speed, so he should get a good trip up the rail. Tres Borrachos is the only one that may put pressure on him, but he doesn't always press the pace and may stalk.

Dixie Chatter is the 5/2 second choice, but he was beaten 5 1/4 lengths by Two Step Salsa in the Laz Barrera and in fact was losing ground in the final furlong. He may have won the G1 Norfolk and can certainly improve in his second start off the long layoff, especially with capable trainer Richard Mandella, but I am not going to put money on him betting he will make up that margin. Besides, he beat Salute the Sarge by only a couple lengths which is about the margin over which he defeated him in the Norfolk last year. So maybe he did run his best race in the Laz Barrerra?

Must stand against Wind's Legacy as well as he finished behind Dixie Chatter in the Laz Barrera.

Tres Borrachos' sire Ecton Park gets a very poor rating for siring synthetic runners Tres Borracho's historical performances over such surfaces as compared to the dirt surfaces of Oaklawn and Bay Meadows would seem to confirm this. I would'nt rule him out completly as he did run a very capable 3rd behind Gayego and Z Fortune in the Arkansas Derby who I consider to be very talented runners. He did finish 1 3/4 ahead of fellow Californian Indian Sun in that race. Indian Sun's prior couple beyers were 79,83,87, and 89 which averages out to about 85. So even given his outstanding race in the Arkansas Derby, he is probably at best a 90 beyer horse, and since he hasn't done particularly well over synthetic surfaces in the past, I am inclined to stand against.

Win
Two Step Salsa (2)

Exacta
EZ Dreamer/ Two Step Salsa (1)