Hollywood Park Race Track -June 18, 2008 R1Clmg 12500 Having watched the 5/8/08 route race between Lady Disdain (2nd) and Gold Datnoid (3rd), I don't think there is too much to separate those two, and their beyers prior to that race seemed to hover around the 71 range, indicating they probably both ran their race since they ran close together. Gold Datnoid did have to run into a slower than average pace this day, so may have been compromised just a bit. Categorize - maybe I'll be caught Knapping but I generally don't bet Steve Knapp horses when unproven. It is 11:40 AM, and this horse is currently 7/2 in the early wagering. Certainly this one is an X factor and does have some talent, but only try on synthetic track resulted in a third place finish. Annie Oakleaf - Scratched Jazzerin - I wrote in my 5/21 race 4 analysis that Jazzerin didn't have a very smooth trip and yet still managed to run a good second at the 20,000 claiming level on 4/30. I am not sure what happened last time, but I am willing to take a chance on her today, especially at the 12,500 level. her 4/30 beyer of 68 should probably be around the mid 70s. Top pick. La Mandonna is very interesting, and in my opinion the other main contender. Unfortunately as of 11:40 AM, she is the 5/2 actual favorite, down from 9/2 on the ML. Darn. But, I like her anyway. On 5/7 she had a couple different trouble spots down the backstretch and still managed a 74 beyer, which is competitive here. If you adjust 2 lengths due to that trouble, the 5/7 performance might be a 78 which is plenty to win here. Win Exacta
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