Hollywood Park Race Track -June 21, 2008 R7

Having watched the 5/21 contest between Judge Gallivan and Tolnai, those two seem about equal. Judge Gallivan will certainly go to the lead from the outside, and Victor Espinosa may send Tolnai to the front since he is down at the rail, and Tolnai has run on the lead before. It is possible those two could get into a pace duel. Judge Gallivan did set a solid pace last time out and still won, and it was 4 1/4 back to the third place finisher, Norway House, suggesting that it was better than the 10K claiming level.

I Beat the Fire is going to be my top pick despite his poor last effort up at Golden Gate fields. John Sadler has reclaimed him and he should be ready to go. He also got within 1 1/2 lengths of Tap it Light on 4/17 at Santa Anita, and that one nearly won a 40K claimer on 5/14 at Hollywood.

I Beat the Fire beat Courtly Jazz on 4/17 by over 6 lengths and that one got within 1 3/4 of Quasimodo who is 8-1 on the ML in today's race. Furthermore, Quasimodo has twice finished 1/2 length and a neck ahead of Norway House, suggesting he is about at his level. And Norway House was beaten over 4 by Tolnai and Judge Gallivan on 5/21 and even by 20-1 ML horse Chadlington. For this reason, I will take a stand against Quasimodo. He's not the horse he was last year.

Another reason I like I Beat the Fire is that in that 4/17 race, he finished almost 6 lengths ahead of Plan for Fun, who got within 2 1/2 lengths of Tolnai (in today's race) on 1/4 at Santa Anita routing. Also in that key race on 4/17, I Beat the Fire finished 1 3/4 lengths ahead of Behind the Screen who was coming in good seconds and thirds at the 25K to 32K claiming level. Tolnai and Judge Gallivan seem to be about 80 beyer horses, but I Beat the fire on 4/17 was beating 80 beyer types by several lengths (such as Behind the Screen who I think could win this race, and Smoocher).

I think Judge Gallivan and Tolnai are worth putting in an exacta box since they finished so close together last time, and definitely underneath in the exotics, especially since Tolnai got within 1/2 of I Beat the Fire on 2/28 at Santa Anita.

Chadlington is very interesting to me and could finish underneath in the exotics at a large price. I would prefer it if he was still with Mike Mitchell or John Sadler but his last with this new trainer did show an excuse, having steadied a the 6 1/2 pole. He beat Norway House by 3 lengths, and Tolnai beat Norway House by 4 1/4 in his last. Possibly for second.

Candlestick Park is worth mentioning because the trainer is top class and the beyer numbers on grass and regular dirt are solid, but until I see a horse run on synthetic, I will pass on him. The X factor in this race.

Win
I Beat the Fire (2)

EXA
I Beat the Fire / Tolnai, Chadlington (1)
Judge Gallivan/ Tolnai (1)