Hollywood Park Race Track -June 26, 2008 R3

Hollywood Park, June 26, 2008 Race 3

Based upon speed figures, this seems to be a two horse race, the main competitors being the two outside horses, Angus and Informed, so I won't spend time on the other horses, although among the rest Cut Trail looks ok.

With Informed you have a 17% trainer with a 13% jockey (for 2008). With Angus you have a 13% trainer with a 21% jockey, so the matchup on that end is pretty close.

Anguses last two beyers at this distance were 83 and 84, Informed 84 and 87 (and pulled in the latter race). Informed also broke from the 8 and 11 posts in these races, whereas Angus broke from the 3 and 7, so overall Informed probably had to cover a length or so more ground than Angus.

Informed has been running in open N1X allowance company whereas Angus has been running in N1X Allowance statebred company. I have seen Bob Baffert drop allowance horses to the claiming level before and win, only to move them back up to the allowance level in their subsequent start, so I am not too concerned about the class drop, although 25K claiming is a bit steep.

The only real value in this race I think is being able to distinguish between these two horses, and Informed seems to be the stronger one based on speed figures. In addition, Informed held his own against Joys Comet on 12/22/07 (despite pulling in the race), whereas Angus was no match for Joy's Comet on 4/17/08, losing by 7 eventually. I don't think this is as good a betting race as some of analyses I have posted recently, so I am going to go light on the bets today. I do think Informed is the better play, and will place a small win wager on him.

Win
Informed (1)