Hollywood Park Race Track - July 2, 2008 R4

Hollywood Park
July 2, 2008 Race 4

Watched the 6/6 race in which Polish Pete won by a nose and outfinished Benchmark Kid by a length. If one adjusts based on trip handicapping, I would put Benchmark Kid perhaps 2-3 lengths ahead of Benchmark Kid. First, Polish Pete broke from the rail and Benchmark Kid from the 6 post, but down the backstretch, they did a criss cross almost, with Polish Pete moving over to the 5 path, which cost him 1/2 in relation to Benchmark Kid. Then Polish Pete went rather wide into the stretch - the DRF comments say 4w but it looked a little wider than that, and given that Benchmark Kid cut the corner well and saved ground, relative to him, I would say Polish Pete lost about a length.

In this race, Benchmark Kid was about 2 1/2 ahead of Polish Pete at the 1/4 pole, but by the 3/16ths, Pete was around 3 to 3 1/2 behind, suggesting the wide swing cost him 1/2 to a length to Benchmark Kid. So, I would actually put him around 1-2 lengths better than he showed. Given that he beat Benchmark Kid by a length anyway, that is reason enough to stand against Benchmark Kid for the win.

The curious thing is that both of them received a higher beyer than they have been getting recently. Polish Petes last 3 beyers at 6F prior to the 6/6/ race averaged to about 75, and he received an 80 here. Benchmark Kid's last three beyers averaged to about 66 (one 6 1/2F and two 7F races), and he got a 77. It is just a little suspicious that both horsesreceived a better number than what they normally had received.

Credibility has in my opinion two reasonable excuses since his impressive mdspwt win on 3/15 in which he received an 88 beyer. First, his next race was routing on the grass which is a totally different ballgame than the one he came out of in breaking his maiden. And the next race may have been too steep a step up in class, but even if that is not so, the reasonable excuse is that any horse can throw in one bad race. Remember Big Brown? So in my opinion, he can be given another chance. If he runs up the track this time, forget him next time, but he does have some nice workout drills signaling his probable readiness, and the trainer seems to be having a good 2008. If he can duplicate his 3/15 race, he wins easily.

Tribal Mischief is the last horse that I think needs to be addressed. This horse looks pretty good. The speed figures of the horses that finished behind him (Delicato, Kaffeinator) are not as strong as those that finished right behind Credibility, but if Credibility doesn't bring his A game, this is the second pick.

Polish Pete is solid and definitely exacta material, but I'll stand against him for the win. I won't play Drewismyson underneath, but second is not outside possibility since he set a very fast pace for 7F last time (22 and 3), and he hung around until the last furlong, and today gets to go only 5 1/2. Second wouldn't suprise though I won't play.

Win
Credibility (2)

Exacta
Credibility / Polish Pete, Tribal Mischief (1)