Hollywood Park Race Track - July 5, 2008 R8

Hollywood Park

July 5, 2008 Race 8
Alw N1X

Awesome Empress won a statebred N1X allowance race but the horses that finished right behind her, Too Phar and Sherry's High look to be of low 80's beyer types, and I think around a 90 is going to be neededto win today's race. The comment in her last is "off a bit slow", but it just seems she is barely outmatching these statebred types and some horses in herehave been competitive against horses that have gone on to win Alw N2X races.

Tizsweetdreams got beat a nose by Highland Torre who came back to win an Alw N2X race by 3 1/2 lengths in 108.64 (for 6F), andalthough she got the perfect rail trip last time and today draws the far outside post, she does get the jockey upgradeto Gomez, so that may help balance that out. According to my GiftHorseRacing speed figure calculations, the 91 beyer thatwas assigned to that race is about spot on (I estimated 92 but 91 is close enough)

The other horse that seems to be able to run above 90 is the rail horse, Barbara's Love, whose 92 beyer I also determinedis likely accurate, neither overstated nor understated. The 92 is legit I believe, has solid connections and came home her final 1/16in her last race in a solid 6 and 1/5 seconds. The problem of course is that although drawing the rail can mean theshortest distance around the track, it can also spell trouble if the horse gets stuck in behind horses. Persian Honeymay very well go with her. I think Talamo will probably send Barbara's Love through to the lead.

Chosen Royalty I think is close to the 85-88 beyer range that she showed in her races two and three back, which may justfall short here.

The top two picks are Tizsweetdreams and Barbara's Love (5-1ML), but Magical Victory needs to be addressed as well. GiftHorseRacing speed figures has determined that the 87 she received on 4/25 may be closer to an 84, not enoughfor this race. However, a mixed signal is thatin the Railbird last out, she finished 3/4 length ahead of Highland Torree, who nosed out Tizsweetdreams on 6/8 last time out. Definitely would play her underneath in the exotics as a result.

Tizsweetdreams is probably the horse most likely to come in the top two spots.

Win
Barbara's Love (1)
Tizsweetdreams (1)

Exacta
Tizsweetdreams, Barbara's Love EXB (1)
Tizsweetdreams/ Magical Victory (1)

total betting units = 5