Hollywood Park Race Track - July 6, 2008 R3

July 6, 2008 Race 3
Clm 25000

Adarlyn Cat and Flower Fusion came out of a key race on 6/11. The DRF comment on Adarlyn Cat expresses what happened well"in tight early". Indeed she was and it probably cost her a length. Add to that Adarlyn Cat shifted in and out a fewtimes just slightly, whereas Flower Fusion kept a straight path, which may have amounted to almost a length. Given that AdarlynCat beat her by a 1/2 length, one could say it might've been closer to 2 with perfectly equivalent trips, maybe even 2 1/2 lengths. Given that the connections of Adarlyn Cat are stronger, that is certainly enough for me to stand against Flower Fusion. She is close enough in ability that it is possible, but at 3-1 ML, I will take my chances against.

Broker's Risk is outclassed and Oakhill Girl could've shown something against Mama Lula on 4/12 on the downhill turf at Santa Anita,but she showed nothing.

Mama Lula certainly fits here. The last time she ran under similar condtions on 2/14, she lost to Sunday Dress by 3 3/4 lengths, but Sunday Dress around an 80-82 beyer type. Mama Lula's best beyers over the polytrack at 6 1/2F and 7F have been79 and 82.

Newport Topper got an 83 on 2/29, but GiftHorseRacing Speed Figures estimates that it should be closer to an 85. Giventhat this horse is 5-1 ML, this is the pick.

Win
Newport Topper (2)

EXA
Newport Topper/Adarlyn Cat, Mama Lula (1)