Hollywood Park Race Track - July 12, 2008 R8

Hollywood Park
July 12, 2008 - Race 8
The Swaps

Either Colonel John or Two Step Salsa should win this race.

As noted in the Special Kentucky Derby Report, Colonel John had some trouble in the Santa Anita Derby, a race in which he received a 95 Beyer, which was estimated to be at least 4 lengths better had he gotten a smoother trip, which would put him at least to a 102 Beyer, maybe even a few points higher.

However, Colonel John is coming off a layoff though he is trained by the capable Eoin Harty who can get them ready, and Garret Gomez is aboard.

Two Step Salsa has Julio Canani who may be a bit stronger as a trainer as compared to Harty but the jockey Pedroza is certainly a huge cut below Gomez, so based on connections, I would give Colonel John the advantage.

Two Step Salsa showed that he can set a very solid pace and still finish strong routing. In the Affirmed Handicap on 6/15, he came home his last 1/16th of a mile in 6.18 seconds, which is much faster than the average, and all the more impressive since he went faster than average early on.

Madeo has been highly regarded, so much so in fact that he went off at 1/5 in his last race, the Alydar at Hollywood Park on 5/24 which was entirely too low. Our analysis even indicated that he wasn’t too far ahead of a horse named Exuma who, as expected finished right next to him. This gives me the confidence that his ability was correctly assessed for the Alydar, and it is not enough to win this. He is 4-1 on the ML, but I will stand firmly against.

Trevor’s Clever only outfinished Madeo by a neck, so I must stand against.

Exacta (Box)
Colonel John, Two Step Salsa (1)