Hollywood Park Race Track - July 13, 2008 R8Hollywood Park Foul Play actually looks like a fair play. GiftHorseRacing Speed Figures agrees with the 86 Beyer assigned to him in his last race on 6/15 at Hollywood Park. The only concern is that Big Red Tate and Army Officer, the two that finished behind him by ½ and by 1 ¼, respectively, in their prior races received Beyers from 78 to 82, which gives me conflicting information. On the one hand I trust our own Speed Figures, and Beyer comes to the same number, but on the other hand, one should always pay attention to the horses that surround the horse being assessed. Indian Weaver and Johnny High Brite don’t have the numbers to contend. Indian Weaver might have been able to contend back in February, but he doesn’t appear to have the same kick lately. Johnny High Brite was beaten a ½ length by Lake Dayjur, and that one was hovering around the 76 Beyer range in his two prior starts, so I think there is enough to stand against him. Mike’s Trippin is a very interesting horse and at 8-1 ML, he is going to be my top pick. I estimate the 85 Beyer Speed Figure he received last time may be closer to an 89 or even 90, which can be competitive here. In fact, the only one that could compete with such a figure here is Common Trust who is 3-1 ML. It is interesting that Brother Man is 6-1 on the ML but Mike’s Trippin is 8-1. After having watched their 5/25 meeting, I believe Mike’s Trippin is the better horse. He steadied pretty badly at the start and got shuffled back. It was clear he wanted to be more forwardly placed, and that is confirmed by his last start. Brother Man got a perfect trip and despite being in tight behind horses until they reached the top of the stretch, he managed not to check or get shuffled back, and then made a nice clean ground saving move into the stretch, whereas Mike’s Trippin had to go perhaps 5 wide into the stretch. Mike’s Trippin was able to get within 2 ¾ of Brother Man in that race, and probably would’ve beaten him by 2 had he got the same trip. It is important to note that Brother Man beat him fair and square on 5/3 by 2 lengths, so it is notable that Brother Man beat him by a similar margin on 5/25 despite a really tough trip for Mike. This suggests Mike’s Trippin might be on the improve, and his last win certainly lends support to that argument. Presidential Cause I think needs more ground than 6 ½ furlongs. He has never broken a 90 in his career and seems to be a mid 80’s type anyway. He gets Bejarano and could easily get up for second, but I will stand against for the win. Brother Man is a stand against for reasons noted above.Brooker has good connections, but was beaten 2+ lengths by a horse I have already eliminated. He was off a bit slow, but despite that excuse, has not been better than the low 80’s in terms of Beyer numbers recently. Count Orange seems to be about the same in ability – low 80’s Beyers. Pass on both. Common Trust again draws the extreme outside post. He should get a clean trip but may have to lose ground again as he did in his last. Nevertheless, despite that loss of ground, he still managed to get an 89 Beyer, which can win this. He is trained by the capable Bill Spawr so he should be ready to go. Contender. Win Exacta BOX
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