Hollywood Park November21, 2008

Hollywood Park November21, 2008
Race 3

Race 3 Pick: Smudgeledo. Has the early speed and breaks from a good post. The 5 1/2 Furlong distance should be best for him. He may have just gone a little too fast early last time at Fresno, but the GHR Numbers shown by his August 22 effort at Del Mar and his September 19 effort at Fairplex are good enough to beat this field. At 5-1 ML he is very good value if the actual odds are comparable. Flip the Penny is 3-1 on the ML and our GHR Number speed figures shows that the last race is weaker than Smudgeledo's two above mentioned efforts. The one thing he has going for him is that he has shown the ability to win in the past, but that was in form he displayed a year ago, and he was coming off a long layoff for his October 30th winning effort, and has a good trainer in Bill Spawr. Yes He is a Pistol we're going to take a stand against. He was no match for the real Smudgeledo on August 22nd. Giovanni is the alternative pick over Smudgeledo though he is the 5/2 ML favorite, I don't think he offers much value, but has a good shot also. Smudgeledo is the pick.