Horse Racing Betting Tip
Reputation Induced Phenomenon

A good horse racing betting tip is to avoid betting on a Breeders Cup or Kentucky Derby winner in their subsequent race. A case in point was seen in the 2010 Palos Verdes (G2) at Santa Anita Race Track. Dancing in Silks was making his first start since his 25-1 upset in the 2009 Breeder’s Cup Sprint. He was made the 4-5 favorite on the strength of that effort, and though a strong case could be made for him being the favorite, 4-5 seemed to be a little bit low, especially since he was coming off of an over 2 month layoff and had won the sprint by the narrowest of margins. He finished a solid third beaten by the promising Kinsale King, doubtless much to the disappointment of his backers. 8/5 might have been a more logical price at which to bet Dancing in Silks.

Kinsale King Defeats Dancing in Silks

Kinsale King

The reason for the short odds is that a horse who has just won a famous race has acquired what one handicapping journalist once called Reputation Induced Phenomenon (R.I.P. for short). That is, when a horses reputation precedes him, there is a tendency for that horse to be bet more heavily than he seemingly warrants.

Therefore, even if a horse appears worthy of consideration, enough other people may be betting him because of familiarity or reputation, so that he may be bet down below what he might be if he had won a lower profile race, even if the performance was seemingly just as strong as the one put forth in the higher profile race.

This is not to say that the Kentucky Derby or Breeders Cup winner should not be the favorite in his next race, but they are often overbet though still the most likely winner among the entrants. Keep this horse racing betting tip in mind and you will likely avoid making an unwise play.