Horse Racing News - Vanity Handicap

Zenyatta in Need of a Rest?
July 10, 2008

Let it first be said that Zenyatta is one remarkable horse, probably the best female horse since Azeri and Sightseek. Not only has she been consistent but she has been consistently brilliant, winning seemingly for fun.

In the Vanity Stakes last Saturday though, she certainly didn’t exude that aura of invincibility she had heretofore exhibited, and while the victory was never in doubt, she had to work much harder for this one, and in fact had she encountered some bad racing luck in the course of her journey, she may have actually gotten herself beat. Ken Rudulph of TVG network was heaping praise on the impressive feat of extending her winning streak to six, but Frank Lyon’s probably got it right in saying that it was a solid effort but not the best of which she is capable.

What had been expected to be effortless work was more a workmanlike effort. She held off the tough Tough Tiz’s Sis by a half-length who seems to be about a 95 beyer type horse at route distances, and Silver Swallow by only a length and three quarters, a horse who has never gotten higher than an 88 Beyer Speed Figure routing.

I would estimate Zenyatta’s Beyer Speed Figure was determined to be around 94 or 95, which is certainly a regression off her 103 effort in the Milady Handicap (and that after being squeezed at the start).

Even the great horses cannot bring their A+ game every single time, so the question is whether her performance in the Vanity indicates a future regression, or if the race should be treated simply as an anomaly.

For example, Rafel Bejarano is currently leading the Hollywood meet with a 20% win rate and led the Santa Anita meet with a 21% win rate - that is he wins about 1 in 5 races. If he is observed to go 0 for 10, does that mean that it is more likely he will do better in his next 10-20 mounts or do we take it as a sign that he is “going off form”? Sometimes jockey’s do become mired in slumps.

In this case, I would bet that he would likely do better, because there is enough data to suggest that the approximate 20% win rate is reliable (over 550 mounts for the past two meets). It doesn’t mean he will do any better than 20% for the next 10-20 mounts, but it is probably not more likely that he will do worse than his average just because he happened to go 0-10.

With horses though, it is a bit trickier because the sample size of races run is so low, and generally I will give a horse one excuse without any apparent explanation for the subpar effort, and assume the horse will come back to run their normal race the next time. Two subpar races in a row, then you have to start considering whether or not they are the same horse they were before.

It is likely she just threw in a below average race, and that she will run her A game next time. If she runs a similar 95 type Beyer race next time, then I think she may indeed be in need of a rest.

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