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Illinois Derby

Recapturetheglory nice but no War Emblem - April 14, 2008

A friend of mine recently made a comparison of Recapturetheglory, the 15-1 upset winner of the Illinois Derby, to the 2002 Illinois Derby winner War Emblem, the eventual winner of the 2002 Kentucky Derby. He may have spoke too soon.

War Emblem received a 112 Beyer Speed Figure for his effort, a number that was likely a fair representation of the effort, considering he won the Derby that year by 4. Recapturetheglory received only a 102 Beyer. Assuming Recapturetheglory’s number is accurate, that is about 5 lengths difference. War Emblem beat Repent by 6 ½, lengths, a horse regarded as one of the very top contenders for that years Run for the Roses. It was another 4 1/2 back in third to a decent horse in Fonz’s, a horse who had run second in the G1 Hollywood Futurity the previous winter, and whose two prior route Beyers were 96 and 98. Repent had received previous Beyers of 95 and 102 in winning the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star, respectively.

Recapturetheglory beat runner up Golden Spikes by 4 lengths in a front running effort, but the third and fourth place finishers were not far behind, and within 1 ½ lengths of Golden Spikes. The last two or three route Beyers for the second through fourth place finishers are all in about 86-87 range. If his Beyer is adjusted based upon the competition he beat, this would put number at around 96, a number which was achieved after breaking from the 1 post, and saving ground the whole way. The 102 he received for his winning effort could therefore be a bit overstated.

A comparison with other 1 1/8 races run at Hawthorne recently indicates that the 4F fraction he ran of 48.64 is about in line with the average pace at that point, so the pace wasn’t particularly fast or slow. He managed to come home his final 1/8 in 12.12 seconds on what seemed to be a solid pace, adding a couple of lengths on the field from the 1/8 pole to the finish.

My friend did point out that he was being pressured by Golden Spikes down the backstretch, and withstood that pressure despite being hemmed in down at the rail, an intangible which is certainly a positive. We agreed that visually it was a more impressive effort than the efforts put forth by Wood winner Tale of Ekati, and he certainly seemed to finish with more energy than him. A final 1/8 in 12.12 is very solid, and he did widen on the field, which is always more impressive than if he had maintained a steady 4 length in the final furlong. He appears to have a nice long stride, and is improving at the right time. If he continues to move forward, he just might get a piece of it on D-day.

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