Kentucky Derby 2010

Kentucky Derby 2010 Analysis

The two favorites ended up as the bookends of the 20 horse field, with 3-1 morning line favorite Lookin at Lucky drawing the rail, and second choice Sidney’s Candy drawing the 20 post, both of which are historically unfavorable posts.

The morning line favorite Lookin at Lucky might have been more aptly named Lookin at Unlucky, as he unluckily drew the rail which can sometimes work to a horses advantage but more often to its disadvantage, as horses can get stuck in traffic down there in such a large field. This is true especially if the horses sit just off the pace, which is Lookin at Luckystyle. This is an immensely talented horse and in eight career starts, he has never lost except for when he has encountered traffic trouble. The first time was in the Breeders Cup Juvenile in which he was bumped late, and most recently in the Santa Anita Derby in which he steadied pretty hard at the 5/16 ths pole, but still managed to come on for third (beaten six lengths by Sidney’s Candy). How close would he have gotten to that one had he had a smooth trip? Its hard to say, but I am not convinced he would’ve won, but he would’ve made it close.

And the second favorite Sidney’s Candy drew the not so sweet 20 post position. Sidney’s Candy is a pure frontrunner though he has won while being rated in the past. If he tries to win it on the front end from that post, it will be tough. Remember that he will have tougher opening fractions if he goes to the lead from post 20 than he would if he broke from say, post 5, because the first couple furlongs will require him to move over to the middle of the track, almost along the hypotenuse of a triangle which is a longer distance than running straight. He will therefore be required to expend more energy in order to clear the field in the first quarter mile.

The positives for Sidney’s Candy are that he has won three straight, including an impressive 4 ½ length victory in the Santa Anita Derby, that he is bred for the 1 ¼ mile distance, being by Candy ride, and finally he is trained by a first class trainer in John Sadler, so he’ll be fit and ready to run.

Besides the disadvantageous post position, Sidney’s Candy has a young inexperienced jockey in Joe Talamo. While Talamo shows promise, he has not shown that he is a big money rider yet. Perhaps that will change Saturday.

And frontrunners in general also do not do well historically – the reason for this is because the pace is faster than normal, and the distance is longer than he has ever been asked to run, its harder to get “loose on the lead” and steal the race, as they say. And finally, it is very important to remember that Sidney’s Candy has never run on natural dirt. If I had a dollar for every time a horse came from an east coast natural dirt with a big speed figure to race on on e of the synthetic Southern California tracks and flopped because he did not display a natural affinity for the synthetic, I would be able to retire. It makes sense that the converse is also true, that horses that have a high affinity also will have a higher probability of not taking to natural dirt as do horses who have already shown they can run on natural dirt.

It is true that Big Brown overcame the 20 post two years ago to take the Derby, but he was an exceptional horse, and I am not sure Sidney’s Candy,while very talented is quite that good. Moreover, we knew Big Brown could run on dirt, whereas Sidney’s Candyhas proven his talents over they synthetic track only.

The filly Devil May Care has been installed as the third choice at 10-1. She certainly was impressive in winning the Bonnie Miss last month but I have a feeling the 1 ¼ distance will be just a touch too long for her. She and Sidney’s Candy come in with the highest last beyer speed figure among all of the entrants, having both registered 100’s for their latest efforts. It is always fun when there is a girl entered against the boys, but please, can we stop with the “girl power” stuff for once?

Jackson Bend drew the 13 post but has run three straight races in the low 90 beyer range, not quite Derby material is it?

Mission Impazible. The Derby gods simply will not allow a horse named Mission Impazible to win the most celebrated horse race in America. Think back to some of the noble, strong, majestic names of the past. Barbaro, Big Brown, Monarchos. It’s true not every name has had such a lofty bearing to it. Cute names such as Smarty Jones,Funny Cide, and Mine that Bird have managed to sneak through, but almost never silly names. (although Lil E. T. may be the lone exception to the rule), If Mission Impazible proves the exception to the rule, well hey, everybody plays the fool, sometimes. Although if it is a sloppy track, he might just do well.

Discreetly Mine lost to Mission Impazible. Enough said.

Paddy O’Prado is just a little bit too light on the speed figures, and is really more bred for the grass than the dirt.In order for Make Music For Me to win, he will have beat Lookin at Lucky, who has beaten him three times, Noble’s Promise, who has beaten him twice, as well as Stately Victor and Paddy O’ Prado, both of whom have beaten him. He has also never run on natural dirt. Anyone who puts their money on this one and cashes a ticket deserves every penny.

Then we have American Lion, who came roaring back in the Illinois Derby with a 2 ¾ length victory after a four length loss to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe. He will be a longshot but he is by Tiznow so it is likely the distance will be no problem for him. I actually like this horse, because he showed he can run over the natural dirt. His 98 Beyer on the dirt is the second highest last race dirt Beyer in the field, next to the filly. He will be 25-1 or so. Tiznow himself was a late bloomer, and American Lion might just might be getting good at the right time.

Dean’s Kitten won the Lanes End at Turfway Park over polytrack, and actually doesn’t look half bad at 50-1 morning line. He seems to be improving at the right time, and if he takes to the natural dirt, he could shake up the trifecta payout at a huge price.

Line of David won the Arkansas Derby by a neck over Super Saver and Dublin. Usually when three horses finish that close together in a race, it suggests that the race was not exceptionally strong. I would throw this trio out.

Stately Victor showed almost nothing before the Blue Grass Stakes, and then dominated by 4 ¼ lengths. Usually the Blue Grass winner isn’t made 30-1 on the morning line, but he will be a good price because not only does he have to show he is not a one time fluke, but also that he can run on not only polytrack, but also natural dirt. He certainly has the breeding to do so, as his father was Ghostzapper, who was phenomenal on the dirt. I like the way he finished up in this race, and is a good play at what will likely be high odds.

Florida Derby winner Ice Box needs to heat up down the stretch if he is going to take the top prize, or will he melt under pressure. Like the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass, the Florida Derby also saw a huge longshot upset the race in Ice Box, who won the race by a nose at 21-1 odds. What makes me skeptical about this victory is that he beat a horse named Pleasant Prince by a nose, and he beat that same horse by a half length two races back in a mere allowance race.

The question is, did they both improve big time from that allowance race to the Grade 1 Florida Derby or did was the Florida Derby just unusually weak, and their allowance race form just good enough to get the job done? If the latter is the case, expect Ice Box to finish up the track.

Conveyance has lost only once in his career, having finished second last out in the Sunland Derby. He won the Southwest Stakes (Grade 3) and the San Rafael Stakes (Grade 3), but the 1 ¼ distance may get to him in that final 1/8.

Noble’s Promise finished a close second in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn to second choice Lookin at Lucky. Looking over his past performance running lines, this one may have distance limitations. In four of his last five races, he has lost ground in the last sixteenth of a mile, all at distances of either 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles. His sire Cuvee was primarily a sprinter and was not known for his stamina.

Awesome Act certainly has talent having won the Gotham Stakes with a 98 Beyer Speed Figure, and he did finish just a head behind Jackson Bend in the Wood Memorial. The one thing that might indicate that Awesome Act might an edge over Jackson Bend is that the former had an excuse, having stumbled at the break, whereas the latter appeared to have a clean trip.

Still, both of them lost to Eskendereya, who would have been the favorite in this race had he not been injured, by 9 ¾ lengths. It is hard to believe that any horse that is going to step up to beat 19 other horses in the biggest race of the year could lose to another horse in a prep race by that large a margin. I will say this, that if either of these two win the Kentucky Derby, it will indicate one of the most weakly run Kentucky Derbies ever.

If 50-1 morning line horse Backtalk wins this, it will be almost as suprising as Mine That Bird’s shocking upset last year. He finished 14 lengths behind American Lion in the Illinois Derby, and American Lion himself is considered a relative longshot.

Homeboy Kris is another that probably deserves to be 50-1 on the morning line. He is coming off a second place finish in an allowance race, how is he going to finish first in a Grade 1 race? On the other hand, he is a Grade 1 winner, having took the Champagne stakes at Belmont last year. And also in his favor is one of the leading jockey and trainer combinations in the country, Ramon Dominguez and Richard Dutrow.

The fact is that this race is wide, wide, open. One thing is certain, the superfecta is going to pay huge.

There is no clear standout and on top of that, rain is in the forecast for the Louisville area beginning late Friday and continuing into Derby Day. Weather.com is calling for an 80 percent chance of precipitation Saturday.

If they end up running in the slop, take a long look at Mission Impazible, he has run pretty well in the slop before. If it is run over a dry surface, I will take a chance on Stately Victor. American Lion has a chance too.