Kentucky Derby Afterthoughts

May 5, 2008

The best way to discuss the results of the 134th Run for the Roses may be to list what was expected and what was unexpected.

The Expected

1. Big Brown won easily. Many hoped and expected that he would win as powerfully as he did. I had a feeling that Kent Desormeaux wasn’t going to rush him up to lead the field. I felt that he would run well and was my top pick to win it all.

2. Pyro ran about as well as I expected. He had a relatively trouble free trip and still only managed 8th. I mentioned several times in our Derby Report that he was overrated.

3. No doubt intoxicated by the euphoria of victory, trainer Richard Dutrow exhibited his trademark hysterical laugh.

The Unexpected

1. The filly Eight Belles finished second and a clear second at that. It was 3 ˝ lengths back to Denis of Cork in third. I have to admit I didn’t forsee her running as well as she did. If Big Brown had not been in the race, few would’ve predicted she might win the Kentucky Derby by 3 ˝ lengths. Given that Pure Clan, who she beat by 3/4 lengths in the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park last month finished third in the Kentucky Oaks the preceding day, I was almost certain she would finish no better than third.

I have seen horses break down in the stretch a number of times, but I have never seen it happen to a horse after galloping out past the wire. The awe inspiring performance of racing newest superstar lost some of its luster due to the tragedy that befell this filly. I remember finding our cat dead under the wheel of a car on the street on my birthday years ago when I was in grade school, I just couldn’t enjoy the day anymore. At least Kent Desormeaux got to enjoy his victory for a minute before spotting her on his gallop to the winners circle.

2. According to the Daily Racing Form official chart, more horses encountered trouble in this Derby than in any other in recent memory. Although the broadcast made it difficult to see every horse at every point in the race, the official chart indicates that 13 of 20 horses encountered some sort of trouble during the race listed as follows:

· Eight Belles – steadied at the 3/8 and 5/16ths
· Denis of Cork – sluggish start
· Tale of Ekati – steadied, drifted out
· Colonel John – steadied early
· Z Fortune – in traffic early
· Smooth Air – broke in air, steadied
· Visionaire – stumbled, steadied
· Court Vision – steadied, carried out
· Z Humor – carried in, took up
· Gayego – sluggish start, rank
· Big Truck – steadied, bumped
· Adriano – took up early
· Monba – steadied early

If you liked one of these horses, you may want to throw the Derby out in handicapping their next race. Every horse I thought might be able to upset Big Brown had some sort of trouble line. To be fair, Eight Belles had perhaps the most trouble of them all (at least according to the charts), and yet she finished a clear second, making her effort all the more impressive. Gayego seemed to have the least amount of trouble according to the charts and managed only 17th, so that was a bit unexpected.

3. Anak Nakal outran his odds to finish 7th. I thought he and Big Truck might complete the exacta for last and second to last place.