2009 Kentucky Derby Picks

2009 Kentucky Derby Picks and Analysis
By Profitus Maximus

I Want Revenge: Picking the favorite is rather dull, but he has everything I am looking for in a Kentucky Derby contender. He has a solid 2-year-old foundation, he overcame trouble in the Wood and still won, he breaks from a favorable post 13, and he has already shown strong enough Speed Figures to win. He has an outstanding trainer in Jeff Mullins who will have him ready to go. The only concern is that he is being piloted by a young 19 year old jockey, Joseph Talamo, who shows promise but has to contend with man a crafty veterans including Edgar Prado, Rafael Bejarano, Ramon Dominguez, and Garret Gomez. Jockeys, like horses, too can be “outclassed”. I do think given the lack of much early speed in this years Derby, and that he is breaking from post 13 may allow him to settle into a nice stalking position. If you see him settled comfortably down the backstretch, then it is his race to lose. He is the top pick.

Desert Party and Regal Ransom: The two Godolphin horses I think are being overlooked in the early wagering. As of the end of the day Friday, the early wagering on these two show Desert Party at about 24-1 and Regal Ransom at about 35-1. Trainer Saeed bin Suroor said that Regal Ransom is not the same horse that he was in Dubai and he doesn’t say he is better than Desert Party, but if he is ever going to beat him it will be in the Derby. Godolphin means business when they enter a horse. See the link to the article Godolphin Don't Come to Lose.

Dunkirk: This horse is very lightly raced, and he doesn’t have that solid 2-year-old foundation, but he has all the natural talent you could hope for. Will he move up after that 107 Beyer effort in the Florida Derby? It is difficult to say, but Pletcher has said that off all the horses he has entered in the Derby, he thinks Dunkirk has the very best chance.

Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey noted that Dunkirk was very tired after his fantastic effort in the Kentucky Derby, but he has had time to refresh himself, and Pletcher wouldn’t enter him if he thought he wasn’t ready. Dunkirk may end up being the best horse by the end of the year and is worth using in your exotics for sure.

Papa Clem: Perhaps not the winner, but he is sure moving in the right direction. He has improved steadily since the beginning of this year and has shown he has an affinity for natural dirt in winning the Arkansas Derby. If the track comes up sloppy, I don’t see him finishing ahead of Friesan Fire who beat him by 7 ¼ lengths in the sloppy track in the Louisiana Derby.

Pioneerof the Nile: Some handicappers have contended that he does not have the speed figures to contend, and I don’t like the odds on him, but you have to admit that he is a winner. He likes to win. And being by Empire Maker he may be running over a surface for which he has no natural affinity. He beat Papa Clem and I Want Revenge (twice) who went on to win the Arkansas Derby and Wood Memorial, respectively.

Also keep in mind that his sire Empire Maker took a huge leap forward around this time last year and he seems to be a similar type of horse to his sire. I will stand against him for the win, but would not be surprised to see him get second. I would also not be surprised to see him finish out of the money. After all, maybe he will not move up on the dirt after all. Maybe he is just a high 90’s Beyer horse on all surfaces. There are too many questions for me to place a win bet on him. I’ll use him in the exotics, but this is not where the value lies, especially given the tremendous hype given to this horse.

Friesan Fire: I would refer the reader to an article I wrote about his sloppy track Louisiana Derby win here. My opinion is that the sloppy track moved him up significantly, and I will play him on one condition Derby Day, and that is if the track comes up sloppy.

The rain may stop before post time in which case they will try to pack it down like they did in the Kentucky Oaks. He is currently 9/2 in the early betting as of the end of Friday, but perhaps some are anticipating a wet track? 9/2 in my opinion over a fast track is outrageous. Second? Sure, why not, but there is better value to be had elsewhere.

Summer Bird: This one is going to be overlooked big time. The positive thing about him is that his abilities are on the upswing, and who knows, maybe that pendulum has only swung part way before it reaches its peak. He was closing nicely in the Arkansas Derby and got very close to one time Kentucky Derby favorite Old Fashioned. The downside is that his connections are mediocre and he has only had three starts, and that the pace may not be particularly brisk which will disadvantage this deep closer. But he does get an extra 1/8th of a mile to run them down as compared to the Arkansas Derby. One more note: he was off a bit slow in the Arkansas Derby. At huge odds, why can’t he clunk up and get third in your trifecta?

General Quarters: I notice that he is 5-1 in the betting as of Friday night. I think that is way way too short a price on him, and perhaps people are betting the Cinderella story here. If you are betting for fun, then bet away, but if you want to make money, I would look elsewhere for the value. This horse has ability and could finish in the money, but I can easily see him finish up the track too. I am standing against him for the win.

Musket Man: I see him and General Quarters as similar type horses. He breaks from that tough two post. I like the Illinois Derby win, but it’s possible the 98 Beyer he received for that is a few points overstated. Lower end of exotics possible, but will stand against for the win.

West Side Bernie: I actually like this horse a bit. I don’t like his post position breaking from the rail. He is a huge longshot and few give him a chance to beat I Want Revenge and I have to admit, he has to improve a couple lengths and I Want Revenge has to either have an off day or get into some traffic trouble for him to pull it off, but I can easily see this one slide up into second or third.

Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff: People are all over Chocolate Candy as he is 9-1 early in the betting. But I see him and Mr. Hot Stuff as being similar in ability. Watching the stretch run of the Santa Anita Derby.

Hold Me Back: As of the end of Friday, he is 11-1 in the advance wagering. No thank you. I think him along with Chocolate Candy and General Quarters are the most overbet so far, and I will take a stand against the Blue Grass runner up.