Kentucky Derby Post Position History

May 2, 2008
GiftHorseRacing staff

This is a look back at how Derby runners have fared by post position. This should serve as a guide. Don't be a slave to post position. As always, handicap the race first, let the post position be a tie-breaking factor. In general, posts 3 to 6 are decent, posts 7 to 14 are very good, posts 15 to 18 are decent. The very inside posts and very far outside posts haven't done as well.

Post 1 – This is a very bad post - only the great Risen Star could overcome this post for an in-the-money (ITM) finish.

Post 2 – Look for quality horses when considering this post – since 2000, there have been 3 ITM finishers from this post, but their odds were 5-1, 11-1 and 16-1 - hardly longshots in the context of derby odds.

Post 3 – The ITM finishers from this post have all been well-backed – the three winners were at odds of 8-1, 8-1 and 18-1 and the three other ITM finishers were 4-1, 7-1 and 8-1.

Post 4 – Similar to post 3 – only Casual Lies at 29-1 had odds higher than 9-1 among the five ITM finishers from this post.

Post 5 – Of the six ITM finishers from this post, four won the race (at odds of 4-1, 5-1, 12-1 and 20-1) and the other two finished 2nd (at 4-1 and 16-1). This post does look favorable in terms of ROI on win and exacta bets.

Post 6 – Favored horses have avoided this post during the draw – only Hansel at 5-2 had odds less than 10-1 starting from post 6.

Post 7 – Street Sense broke a long drought for this post, as you have to go back to Strodes Creek in 1994 to find another ITM finish, and before that, Pleasant Colony in 1981. There have been seven horses at odds of 8-1 or less that have failed to hit the board from this post.

Post 8 – Another post that the quality horses favor - the three winners from this post were at odds of 6-1, 9-1 and 11-1, the two 2nd place finishers were 10-1 and 18-1, and the three 3rd place finishers were 2-1, 7-1 and 10-1.

Post 9 – Another post that, until recent history, the favored horses ignored – and with good reason. Before 2001, the lowest odds horse to start from this post (that were not part of the field bet or a coupled entry) was 6-1 Tabasco cat in 1994, who finished out of the money. The next lowest odds were on Gulch in 1987, who finished 3rd at 14-1. Since 2001, there have been three well-backed horses who have started from this post and finished out of the money - More Than Ready at 11-1, Medaglia d’Oro at 7-1 and The Cliffs Edge at 8-1.

Post 10 – This is the post is tied with post 13 for the most in-the-money finishes in our sample. Of the five winners from this post, four were between the years 1983 and 1992, at odds of 5/2, 3-1, 4-1 and 16-1. Since 1993, only one winner has come from this post, which was Giacomo at 50-1. The other ITM finishes were all for 3rd place, at odds of 7-1, 7-1, 87-1 and 9-1 (as part of the field bet). Despite the high number of ITM finishes, you should demand quality from this post, based on this post’s lack of success in recent history.

Post 11 – This post has had a real lack of success over the years. Since 1982, this post has featured horses at odds of 4-1, 5-1, 5-1, 7/2 (Winning Colors), 6-1, 4-1, 5-1, 5/2 (Empire Maker), 7-1 and 6-1. All but the before-mentioned Winning Colors and Empire Maker finished out of the money.

Post 12 – Aside from Afleet Alex in 2005, no favored horses have selected this post recently. You would have to go back to Afternoon Deelites in 1995 to find a horse starting from this post at odds of less than 10-1.

Post 13 – Unlucky post number 13 has been very lucky for bettors. Smarty Jones is the only winner from this post, and he was the best horse that year, but check out the odds of this post’s other ITM finishers – there were five 2nd place finishers at 30-1, 55-1, 14-1, 2-1, and 4/5, and three 3rd place finishers at 10-1, 14-1, and 8-1 (as part of the field bet).

Post 14 – This post has seen some well-backed horses in recent times – with poor results. Since 1999, there have been 4 horses that started from this post with odds of less than 9-1.

Post 15 – This post has had mixed results, with a negative trend in recent times. There have been five ITM finishes from this post, and all were well-backed – three winners at odds of 2-1, 5-1 (part of a coupled entry) and 7-2, a 2nd place finisher at 5-1, and a 3rd place finisher at 3-1. However, since 2002 there have been three horses at odds of 7-1 to start from this post, and all finished out of the money. Please note there were less than 15 starters in 1997, 1994, and 1985.

Post 16 – A mixed bag as well. There have been five ITM finishers from this post – three winners at odds of 10-1, 31-1 and 24-1, and two 3rd place finishers at 33-1 and 25-1, so some longshots have had some success here. On the flip side, there have also been five starters at odds of 8-1 or less who finished off the board. Please note that there were less than 16 starters in 1998, 1997, 1994, 1990, 1989, and 1985.

Posts 17, 18, 19 and 20 – These posts are grouped together because a) the lack of ITM finishes from these posts and b) there were numerous years where the field did not have these many horses. Taking those things into consideration, post 18 has had some success, with a winner at 21-1 and two 2nd place finishers at 7-1 and 70-1.