2009 Kentucky Derby Result May Tell Us If We Have a Triple Crown Contender

Courtesy Horseracegame.com

So, what are we to look for in the running of the 2009 Kentucky Derby that may give us a hint that a Triple Crown winner may be in our midst? Well, the first thing to do, of course, is to throw out all 19 horses that didn't win the race because they can't, by definition, be Triple Crown winners. However, there are things you can look at in the performance of the winner that could be helpful in determining his Triple Crown worthiness. What are those things? Well, a professional handicapper looks at myriad factors, way too many to go into here. However, I will simply give you a few guidelines, a few things to look for.

The first thing you need to look at is whether or not the horse had to overextend himself to win the race. Now, I know that Big Brown won the Derby in 2008. However, he did have the far outside #20 post position, and because he was a stalker, it was absolutely critical that he get to the first turn, about 5/16 of a mile into the race, in good position. He did get to about 4th place by that point, then went on to win the race, but I have always thought that Big Brown overextended himself from that post position, which trainer Dutrow strangely chose over two other more advantageous posts, and that contributed to the horse not having enough left in the tank to win the Belmont Stakes. Say what you want about that shoe problem, but I think he was also clearly out of gas for that race, and the Derby may have contributed. So there you go: look for an easy trip, one with no extremes one way or another.

The next thing to consider whether the horse that won the race won in a style that is not his usual way of going. That shows versatility, and it is almost essential in the pursuit of a Triple Crown. For instance, I Want Revenge is a stalker by nature, yet he won the Wood Memorial as a closer because of a bad break from the starting gate. If he were to do something similar in the Kentucky Derby, it would show the kind of versatility rarely seen. Of course, Triple Crown winners are rarely seen, as well.

The final thing I would advise you to look for in the Derby is competitive fire. Many of the horses that are racing in the Kentucky Derby have been stars in the few races they have run up to this point in their lives, often running in races in which they face no stiff competition, particularly in the stretch. A Triple Crown winner is going to face some kind of competition at some point in the three races. Secretariat is often regarded as the very greatest of the 11 Triple Crown winners, and even he had Sham test him in both the Kentucky Derby and in the Preakness Stakes. Of course, he rose to the challenge. When you watch the Derby, look to see if the winner pulls away from a challenger in mid to deep stretch. That's a great sign.