Kentucky Derby ReportRight-click here to download the Kentucky Derby Report PDF file. The aim of this report was to provide insight and information that is not available elsewhere to help you succeed on Derby Day. View excerpts below from our Special Kentucky Derby Report - In Depth Analysis. From Prep Races Section: Santa Anita Derby
Pointing out that Colonel John made a powerful late run to score an impressive victory in the Santa Anita Derby won’t tell you anything you don’t already know or can’t obtain for free from the Daily Racing Form or the Bloodhorse. Two important points of interest are how well he ran in the Santa Anita Derby in relation to Yankee Bravo, who was third to Pyro in the Louisiana Derby, and to Derby hopeful Bob Black Jack. How he ran against Yankee Bravo in this race tells you something about Pyro; how he ran against Bob Black Jack tells you something about talented Arkansas Derby winner Gayego.... ...Furthermore, the final 1/8 of a mile run by winner Tale of Ekati was 13.68 (see chart below), which is on the slow side. In contrast, see the chart below to see the final 1/8 of a mile run by some of the more recent Wood winners.
This was the second slowest final 1/8 behind Bob and John’s 14.06 seconds in the 2006 Wood Memorial (who finished 17th in that year's Derby, beaten 31½ lengths), and he ran his Wood in .81 seconds faster (about 4 ½ lengths). Therefore, Tale of Ekati’s final 1/8 of 13.68 indicates he will probably be less effective...
Gayego ran one of the best Derby preps. Gayego was used early to get position, enjoyed a good stalking strip laying about a length off the pacesetter and pressing a solid pace, and still finished the final 1/8 very nicely. It should be noted that whereas Mike Smith hustled Gayego out of the gate and got a good spot 2 horse paths off the rail, Z Fortune on the other hand got hung out wide into the first turn in the 4 or 5 path, a difference of about a length. Gayego’s margin of victory over Z Fortune was about ¾ of a length. Gayego who pressed a 22.71 pace and sitting 1 ½ off, ran about 22.93 for the opening quarter. The early fractions he ran were about the average or maybe a bit faster than an average pacesetter in the Arkansas Derby, and he still held on well to finish his final 1/8 in a very strong 12.68 seconds. Gayego beat Indian Sun by 6 ½ lengths in the Arkansas Derby, which is the about the same margin by which he outran him in the San Felipe in their prior race. It suggests that Gayego probably did not benefit from any particular affinity for the Oaklawn Park surface, as some horses do. As an example, older handicap horse Buzzards Bay won the Oaklawn Handicap by 6 ½ lengths but subsequently never ran close to the strength of that performance on other surfaces. This is important because it suggests Gayego won’t be leaving his relative advantage at Oaklawn, but will rather take it with him to Churchill.... From Contender Profiles Section: Z Fortune Is he improving? Note that Blackberry Road got within about 2 lengths of Z Fortune in the LeComte and then the Risen Star (both at the Fairgrounds), but in the Arkansas Derby he managed to get within only about 9-10 lengths of Z Fortune. So, that means either Z Fortune is improving....
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