Kentucky Oaks - May 2, 2008Pretenders/Stand Against A to the Croft - 20-1 on the ML is very generous. Beyers too low. Pretender Absolutely Cindy - Lost to Proud Spell twice by many lengths. No thank you. Elusive Lady - And 83 and an 84 beyer in her two previous. Already beaten 4 by Awesome Chic. Pass Rasierra - At 50-1 ML, might be worth putting way underneath in your exotics. Got a 91 beyer in her last effort and has a 46 and 3 bullet drill at Churchill on 4/28. Third or Fourth place is not unreasonable. Little Belle - Not impossible, especially since she won the Ashland, and this one can definitely complete your exacta, but there are a few in here that are potential superstars. Beat B Sharp Sonata in the G1 Ashland by a neck, but that one seems more like a 90 Beyer type. Little Belles prior beyer in the Busher stakes at AQU was only an 88. She is very consistent and like underneath in the exacta. But standing against for the win. Proud Spell - She will likely go off as one of the top choices, and her numbers over dirt are good, but I think there are a couple potentially better than her. Jones made a good choice putting her here instead of the Derby. Throw out the polytrack effort, the 83 Beyer is not representative of her ability, and the number likely low because of the 24.95 first quarter, victim of the slow pace. Note that she ran down Indian Blessing at 1 1/16 in the Fairground Oaks, but so did 12-1 ML Golden Doc A. I'd rather take a chance on the 12-1 rather than the 7/2. Contender but the odds not likely to be enticing. Stand against Awesome Chic - In winning the Florida Oaks at Tampa Bay Downs, she ran a length faster than Big Truck did 2 races later in winning the Tampa Bay Derby (at the same 1 1/16 distance), which is always a positive when you run faster than the boys. Problem is, Big Truck seems to be about a 90 beyer type of horse, and I actually think he would lose if he were entered in this race. She can get second, but she looks like a sprinter with very quick action but short stride. At 20-1 worth a few bucks underneath an exacta. Contenders Pure Clan-One of the top picks. 6-1 ML is a good price. She is 2/2 at Churchill and sometimes people underestimate that extra edge Country Star-This horse ran a faster 1 1/16 in winning the G1 Hollywood Starlet last winter over the Hollywood cushion track than G1 older mare Zenyatta did that same day, just a few races earlier. I don't know quite how to explain the last, except that I always always forgive one bad race, especially if the talent was there before and especially if she's trained by Bobby Frankel. Her sire Empire Maker was upset over the Churchill Downs strip in the Derby, but thats probably reading too much into it. She's probably not even bred for the synthetics and yet she has dazzled over that surface. Gets reunited with Bejarano and sometimes certain horses click with certain jockeys. Besides he knows her well having ridden her three times. Golden Doc A-Think she can upset this field. Despite running on only grass and synthetic, she has the talent and came home her final 1/16 in the Santa Anita Oaks in under 6 seconds which is outstanding. If she had a few more seconds to run in that race, she would be a dual G1 winner, so why such a high ML? She has a bullet drill over Churchill on 4/23. Her sire Unusual Heat is generally better on grass, but at 12-1, I am more than willing to find out. Note: The track is sloppy as of Noon (Pacific). Pure Clan's sire Pure Prize does well on an off track, as does Little Belle sire AP Indy, and Awesome Chics sire Awesome Again according to Sire Stats. Its really pouring down right now so proceed with caution. Bets (proportions of 1,2) Win Exacta
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