Mine That Bird Kentucky Derby Upset Still Baffling in Hindsight

Posted May 2, 2009
By Profitus Maximus

I am still having difficulty comprehending Mine That Bird's Kentucky Derby win.

Hindsight is 20/20 they say, as people have a tendency to twist the facts to fit results, rather than the reverse. But simply no sense can be made of the 48-1 long shots astonishing 6-3/4 length win in the 135th Kentucky Derby, no matter how long or how hard you stare at his past performances. No handicapper need feel embarrassed about excluding Mine That Bird from even the fourth spot in their superfecta, let alone for the win.

Mine That Bird

To call his victory in the Kentucky Derby an upset is a vast understatement. This may be the single most unbelievable result I have ever witnessed in 10 years of handicapping.

I have lost races in which similarly priced horses have upset the field, but in evaluating those upsets, I can at least justify the performance in retrospect.

Giacomo, for example, won the 2005 Kentucky Derby at slightly higher odds of 50-1, and though Giacomo was certainly not the top choice, a case can be made for him if everything happen to fall into place for him.

That year the pace figured to be very fast which would benefit his deep closing style, he closed decently in the Santa Anita Derby, and he had run Beyer Speed Figures in the mid to high 90’s. Many expert handicappers that year were mentioning him for a minor placing, but I didn’t hear the name Mine That Bird mentioned even once in any horse racing news publications, telecasts, or blogs.

Another major upset can be found as recently as last year. D’Tara caused a 39-1 upset in the Belmont Stakes which I must admit took me by surprise, but after looking over the past performances and upon a bit of reflection, the outcome can be justified if you reach just a little bit. If Big Brown doesn’t show up to race as was the case, then the race becomes wide open. The runner up in that race Denis of Cork was a mid 90’s Beyer Speed Figure type horse and Da’Tara had registered a 92 Beyer in his previous start, but more importantly was showing a steady progression from February of 2007 to May of 2007.

Mine That Bird on the other hand, had registered Beyers in the high 70’s in August and September of his 2-year-old season. For his two starts as a 3-year-old immediately preceding his Kentucky Derby win, he was assigned Beyers of 81 and 80, which indicated marginal improvement at best from his 2-year-old to his 3-year-old season.

If he runs in the Preakness Stakes, that should provide a little more clarity as to whether he was a one hit wonder or not. He is a May foal so maybe he was just physically immature prior to the Kentucky Derby and in the past month underwent a tremendous growth spurt, much as happens sometimes with youngsters just coming into adolescence.