Old Fashioned - Kentucky Derby Contender

Old Fashioned Kentucky Derby Contender

Old Fashioned began his racing career with a 6 furlong maiden win in October 2008 at Delaware Park, and despite throwing his head a bit at the start, he gradually wore down favorite Sunday Blitz to prevail narrowly by a nose.

Watch His Maiden Win Here

The real eye opener came in his second race in which he was given the next logical test as he climbed the class ladder to a non-winners of one allowance race at 1-mile at Delaware Park. He went straight to the lead, led at every call, and drew away powerfully in the stretch, demolishing his competition by 15 ½ lengths. What is amazing is that he put almost 10 lengths on the field in the final furlong (that is, in about 13 seconds) of the race.

Watch His Allowance Win Here (Second Race)

The Remsen

His Remsen win put Old Fashioned at the top of most Derby watchers contenders list. He won that race in 150.33, running about 8 lengths faster than the Demoiselle(the corresponding race for 2 year old fillies) winner Springside who ran her race in 151.71, run just 30 minutes prior to the Remsen.

It is always a good sign if the Remsen winner can run faster than the Demoiselle winner which is the corresponding 2-year-old filly race traditionally run immediately before the Remsen.

In 2005, Bluegrass Cat won the Remsen in time about 4 lengths faster than that years Demoiselle winner Wonder Lady Anne L., and Bluegrass Cat eventually went on to place in both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes.

And in 2006, Nobizlikeshobiz won the Remsen in a time that corresponded to about 8 lengths faster than the time of that year's Demoiselle winner, Boca Grande. Nobizlikeshobiz went on to win the Grade I Wood Memorial.

On the other hand, last year’s Remsen Winner, Court Vision ran 5 lengths slower than Mushka, the Demoiselle winner, and Court Vision could manage no better than 13th place to Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby, finishing well up the track.

It should be noted that the track was playing somewhat on the slow side so although Old Fashioned’s final time of 150.33 may seem a bit mediocre, a comparison to the Demoiselle winner’s time is always one way to assess the strength of the Remsen, when not much is known about the exact speed of the track.

Another way to assess the strength of route races like the Remsen is to consider is how fast a horse ran his final 1/8 of a mile.

As a rule of thumb, a 9th furlong run in anything under 13 seconds is considered solid. This of course, depends on the speed of the track as well as the early pace of the race, but he ran his final 1/8 in the Remsen in 12.22 seconds, which makes Old Fashioned Kentucky Derby material, as this is exactly the type of thing you want to see in a horse expected to run an extra 1/8 of a mile in the 1 ¼ mile Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.

Remsen Stakes Daily Racing Form Results - Click Here

The Southwest Stakes

He won the Southwest Stakes on February 16, 2009 as he was expected to, in solid, though not electrifying fashion, drawing off by 3 ½ lengths over runner up Silver City.

He also showed that he could rate if needed, as he stalked Silver City down the backstretch before taking command in mid-stretch.

The 93 Beyer Speed Figure assigned to him for this race seems to indicate what many suspected, that the effort was not as powerful as the 100 he received for the Remsen last year. However, considering that he was making only his first start in 2 ½ months and that he may have needed the race, it might be asking alot to expect much more than that.

Southwest Daily Racing Form Results - Click Here

Is Old Fashioned Kentucky Derby Material?

He also appears to have a nice long stride, which is generally one of the attributes of a horse with both the class and endurance needed to win the 1 ¼ mile distance of the Kentucky Derby.

One thing that might compromise Old Fashioned's Kentucky Derby chances is that he seems to be a frontrunner, and typically those horses are at a disadvantage in the Kentucky Derby, as they often end up getting pushed into a speed duel with another speedy horse which takes too much out of them early that they don’t have quite enough in reserve to pull off the win.

However, Old Fashioned does not appear to be one of those headstrong types that are determined to pull themselves to the lead, as Ramon Dominguez seemed to be able to moderate his speed in the Remsen to a slower than average 24.41 for the first quarter mile.

Some horses might become a bit impatient if they were asked to go that slow and pull at the jockey to go faster, but he seemed to be relatively under control in the Remsen.

He seems to want the lead but can be restrained if a speedier horse is determined to make the lead, as was Silver City in the Southwest.

Furthermore, he has shown that he can win from off the pace, as he did in his maiden score, and in his Southwest win, and it is not likely that a rider with as sound judgement as Dominguez would let him get into a pace duel with some speedball in the Derby.

What's Next for Old Fashioned?

Old Fashioned will remain at Oaklawn and contest the Rebel Stakes (G2)on March 14, according to his connections.

Check back for more on Old Fashioned Kentucky Derby Contender News as it breaks!