Is Pioneerof the Nile more Hype than Hope?

March 20, 2009
By Profitus Maximus

Pioneerof The Nile: San Felipe Analysis

It is an ironic thing when a horse succeeds but the opinion of that horse is lessened. In winning last Saturday’s San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita Race Track, Pioneerof the Nile did nothing wrong in his 1 ¼ length victory, but when the weight of so much expectation has been placed upon his back, the connections are no doubt wishing that he had shown just a little more than he did.

Pioneerof the Nile, on the other hand is surely only concerned about the weight of 118 pounds on his back, and probably thinks his trainer Bob Baffert couldn’t be more proud, and though Baffert has said that he liked what he saw, I think he would agree this wasn’t the breakthrough performance he was looking for.

That being said, this horse is a May foal so he isn’t even three yet, and his breeding suggests that his biggest steps forward will come a little later. After all, his sire Empire Maker, made his big breakthrough in the Florida Derby which he won by over 9 lengths. That was in mid March of 2003, but Empire Maker was an April foal, so if he takes after his father, he should take a step forward in the Santa Anita Derby next month.

But now we are speculating on future performance, not past performance. Pioneerof the Nile got a 90 Beyer Speed Figure for the San Felipe and who knows, maybe this is as good as he will ever be. People do seem to be expecting him to be great because his breeding is so outstanding but he hasn’t shown it yet.

What I do know for certain is that his San Felipe effort is not nearly good enough to contend with the awesomeness that has taken the form of The Pamplemousse in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4, 2009.

Feisty Suances, who was the runner up beaten 1 ¼ lengths, received a 77 Beyer Speed Figure in his prior effort, finishing fourth in the California Derby. And Jeranimo who finished third beaten 2 lengths received an 80 Beyer in an allowance route race in his last race.

So it doesn’t appear that Pioneerof the Nile beat much in the San Felipe and it is not as if he was ridden to an easy victory. Gomez was riding him vigorously at the 1/8 pole and even gave him a few cracks of the whip, and continued to ride hard to the wire.

In order for this horse to win the roses the first Saturday in May, one thing has to be the case and another has to happen. The first is that it must be the case that this is a natural dirt horse and not a synthetic track horse as his rival I Want Revenge seems to be, as they will be running over natural dirt in the Kentucky Derby. The second is that, like I Want Revenge, he needs to take a big step forward and improve.

His performance against The Pamplemousse over the synthetic in the Santa Anita Derby will tell us the latter, but we will have to wait until the first Saturday in May to discover to what extent the former is true.