133rd Preakness Stakes - May 17, 2008

I am not going to be the wise guy and try to find the horse to upset Big Brown. If Big Brown doesn’t win, it will be because either he just threw in an inexplicable clunker as horses do sometimes, he has a particularly disastrous trip or start, or some other unforeseen circumstance.

The early odds as of the end of Saturday were 1-10 on Big Brown, and given that a lot of that money is coming from casual fans, 1-10 simply is not worth a bet. He may go off closer to 1-5 or perhaps even 2-5. Barbaro was 1-2 in the 2006 Preakness and as we well know, things do happen.

The potential value likely lies embedded in the Exacta. If the bettor can narrow down the horses likely to come in second, there may be some value in structuring the bet with Big Brown on top and the horses likely to place underneath. Furthermore, the casual bettor will more likely place their for fun wagers in the win pool rather than the exacta.

The first – second place sequence that I think is most likely is also likely to be the lowest paying exacta on the board, and that is Big Brown over Gayego. The latter earned a 55 Beyer Speed Figure in the Derby but that is obviously a tossout as he had trouble in the race and like many, dropped farther back than they might ordinarily once they see they have no chance to pick up a check.

Kentucky Bear ran a good third in the Blue Grass. Given that it was on the polytrack, the effort may be better than his 90 Speed Figure suggests if he does not have a particular affinity for that type of surface, and possibly not as strong if he in fact happens to naturally be a stronger performer on synthetic tracks.

His maiden win by 6 ½ lengths at Gulfstream Park seems to suggest that he will do just fine on the dirt. He wasn’t fading in the stretch of the Blue Grass Stakes but rather inching towards the winner Monba suggesting the distance will suit him just fine.

Macho Again ran a good time in winning the Derby Trial last time earning a 99 Speed Figure and running a solid 128.45, coming home his final 3/16ths in about 18 seconds which is also very solid. He has run very well against stakes quality competition in the past nearly running down Blue Grass winner Monba last fall at Churchill, and outfinishing Saratoga Special winner, Belmont Futurity runner up, and Breeders Cup Juvenile third place finisher Kodiak Kowboy in the Derby Trial. He has the class, and based on the way he came home in the Derby Trial, I think the 1 3/16ths distance of the Preakness is within his range.

Macho Again was 70-1 in the early betting as of 5:35 p.m. Eastern on Friday. I am sure he will be lower at post time, but he if his post time odds are even half that and it is reflected in the exacta payouts with Big Brown, he might offer good betting value. If he goes off at 40-1, I may even play a small win wager on him.

Gayego is the most logical second choice to finish behind Big Brown. If the odds on a Big Brown/Gayego exacta are 3-1 or better, it might be worth a wager. The handicapping selections are as follows:

Exacta
Big Brown / Gayego (2)
Big Brown / Kentucky Bear, Macho Again (1)

Total betting units = 4