April 19, 2008 - race 9 - Santa Anita Race TrackSanta Barbara Handicap - G2 Key races 12/16/07 – Dahlia Hcp 2/2/08 race at 1 ¼ on turf, horse named Le Cirque was about 3 ½ behind Lavender Sky at the ¼ pole, and about 4 behind at the wire, so Le Cirque actually ran on reasonably well compared to Lavender Sky, finishing 3 ¾ behind her, so basically ran evenly with her, almost stayed on terms with her. Going past the stands first time, could see Lavender Sky being restrained just a bit at one point, which always takes just a bit of energy away. And on 3/1/08, Lemonette was closing much faster in the final 1/8 (9th F) on Forest Melody than Lavender Sky was who was sort of reeling in Forest Melody on 2/1/08 in the 10thF, she had her measure, but she wasn’t flying at her the way Lemonette was. Lemonette was 1 ¼ - 1 ½ ahead of Le Cirque at the ¼ pole, and about 2 lengths ahead of her at the wire (DRF says 1 ¾ but it was 2), which is similar to Lavender Sky as compared to Le Cirque on 2/2/08. Given these two comparison horses, might say Lemonette is closer to Lavender Sky than you might think, and in fact may be equal in ability. Lemonette is 20-1 on the ML, and Lavender Sky is 4-1. Lemonette is definitely worth a win bet, and definitely want to use her underneath in an exacta, especially with Lavender Sky and Black Mamba on top. I watched the Dahlia Hcp on 12/16/07, and really could not find much to differentiate Black Mamba with Lavender Sky. Black Mamba broke from the 3 post, Lavender Sky from the 5, Lavender Sky was about a length behind Black Mamba all the way around the track, made a move turning into the stretch just slightly before Black Mamba was really let go, she went with her. In the stretch Lavender Sky was running very straight, whereas Black Mamba moved over about ½ length, but that is really splitting hairs. And yet, that last point, combined with the fact that Black Mamba ran a very close third in the G1 Yellow ribbon over the 1 ¼ SA course, getting within ¾ of G1 winners Citronnade and Nashobas Key, makes her appealing. And remember that in 1 ¼ races at Santa Anita they run down the hill for the first ¼ mile and cross over the dirt, and some horses don’t take to running downhill like that, so there may be a bit of a horse for course angle with Black Mamba. Throw in the fact that Black Mamba is trained by John Sadler whose numbers are much better than Dan Hendricks who trains Lavender Sky, and that might be reason to prefer Black Mamba just slightly to Lavender Sky. Black Mamba didn’t run her race last time out obviously, but I have learned to excuse one bad race, and the possibility of that effort signaling a decline in form may be offset by slightly better odds because of that assessment by some. But I trust John Sadler; I think he runs them where they are ready to win. The last key race to address is the Santa Ana Hcp. It was very difficult to distinguish Immortelle (6-1ML), from Foxysox (6-1 ML), from Lavender Sky (4-1 ML). These three were all within 2 lengths of each other down the backstretch, at the top of the lane they were all side by side, ran together evenly down the stretch, and finished within a neck of each other. Lavender Sky did break from the rail while Immortelle and Foxysox broke from posts 7 and 8, respectively, so they had to cover a bit more ground than Lavender Sky who saved ground. Furthermore, Foxysox near the 3/8 pole was not shuffled back, but just had to wait a bit, while Immortelle was able to go on with it, and Foxysox did have to dive to the rail in the stretch, and so covered a bit more ground on that account as well. I do prefer Immortelle and Foxysox over Lavender Sky because of the extra ground they covered due to their outside posts, and if Foxysox had been able to move with Immortelle instead of having to pause nearing the turn, she might’ve finished a couple lengths ahead of where she did. Immortelle gave a good performance second off a long layoff, so she may be ready for a peak effort today. I am going to stand against Lavender Sky for the win. I expect Forest Melody to tire in the stretch. Colina Verde did not seem to have any excuse in the Santa Ana. Track caller Trevor Denman did seem to think she was full of run at the quarter pole if she could get out, but she just flattened out. Persian Express couldn’t keep up with Immortelle and Lavender Sky in the Santa Ana. I Can See has lost to Lavender Sky and Immortelle, and to Black Mamba three times, and the connections leave little to be desired. That leaves us with Double Trouble and Solva. Double Trouble has excellent connections, and she has finished noses apart from Shermeen twice. In the Buena Vista stakes, Black Mamba and Shermeen were even at the top of the stretch, raced evenly, until the 1/16 pole when Black Mamba began to pull away from her. On this basis, I prefer Black Mamba to Double Trouble, and the latter will likely be the favorite given the top connections. Solva is coming off a one-year layoff, conditioned by a good trainer, but a year is a long time to come back and win at 1 ¼. This one has some ability, but I’ll pass. In summary, this was a tough race and the distinctions between Black Mamba, Lavender Sky, Immortelle, Foxysox, and even Double Trouble are very fine. The true value in this race seems to be Lemonette, who I think will outrun her 20-1 ML odds. Win on Lemonette
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