April 20, 2008 - race 9 - Santa Anita Race TrackKey races SA – 1/13/08 R4 Comparison of Almacita with Sweet Roseman In her last race on 3/31/08, Almacita faced off against Sweet Roseman. There were 2 separate times when Sweet Roseman got first run on Almacita where Almacita had to wait a bit, once nearing the 3/8ths pole, another at the top of the lane. Almactita didn’t encounter what the past performances might identify as trouble, but these two points probably accounts for a length, maybe two when compared with Sweet Roseman. Even in homestretch, Almacita appeared to cover about ½ to ¾ lengths more ground than Sweet Roseman did, and still won pretty convincingly. The advantage Sweet Roseman has is that she gets to run a 1/16 of a mile less, which should suit her, and she was closer to Almacita at the 6F mark than at the wire in their last 6 ½F race. She is down at the rail and it looks like Lucky Mama to her right is a bit faster, as is Elsie Jo over in post 3. She has speed but not the kind of 21 to 21 and 2 speed Elsie Joe and Lucky Mama have shown so she will need a little bit of racing luck to make a clear run from just off the pace. In the 3/31/08 race, she was behind horses on a fast pace for the distance, and she looked like she was ready to be a bit closer to the lead. Assuming she and Almacita have equivalent trips, the latter looks to have the edge, and the odds will reflect that. Comparing the connections – Mike Mitchell’s (Almacita) numbers a bit better than Ted West (Sweet Roseman), and T. Baze (Sweet Roseman) a bit more experienced than J. Campos, so the connections cancel each other out. With the two speed horses to her inside, Almacita will likely be able to drop in behind, as will Havens Lake. There is the possibility Havens Lake will try to box Almacita in or get the better stalking position. They faced each other on 3/9/08 as well and Almacita finished about 4 lengths ahead of Sweet Rosemun in this 6F race. Comparison of Havens Lake with Almacita They both ran against a horse named Rapid Goose. Almacita clearly ran a better final ¼ against Rapid Goose than did Havens Lake. On 1/13/08, Havens Lake netted a gain against Rapid Goose from the quarter pole of 1 ¾ lengths, whereas Almacita had net gain of 7 on Rapid Goose. Havens Lake should be more forwardly placed than Almacita rounding the turn, but I think Almactia should be able to run her down. Havens Lake will likely have to run a bit faster than would be to her advantage with all the speed in here, which might tire her out near the end. The Others Lucky Mama (8-1 ML) – beat Absolutely Smitten by 2 ¼ last time out, but this horse was beaten by Spanish Heat in her previous race by a length, and Spanish Heat was clearly no match for Almacita on 3/31/08. She has good connections, but I think she may be outclassed and past races indicate 6F may be a 1/16 beyond her best distance. Elsie Joe has set some blistering fractions, and Lucky Mama has set some fast fractions and these two should ensure a very fast pace. I think Lucky Mama will likely fade in the stretch. Elsie Joe – speedster will ensure a blazing pace. Bejarano and Knapp are a combination you don’t see too often. Is it because its closing day and it’s the only mount available for Rafael? Races on 12/31/07 and 1/26/08 are good enough to be competitive, but faded in last despite a pace more on the moderate side for her. But her three races prior to show Beyer figures that are competitive. Getinthereontime, We Love L.A., and Alonewiththestorm just don’t have the numbers to entice. Catch Candy (20-1 ML) is one to consider for the exotics. On 1/17/08 she out finished Startjumpinmarie by 1¼ lengths who came back to win a N1X Allowance and then a N2X Allowance race at Bay Meadows. Win on Almacita
|
